Saudi Press

Saudi Arabia and the world
Friday, Dec 19, 2025

US recession fears grow as economy slows sharply in first quarter

US recession fears grow as economy slows sharply in first quarter

Growth eases by far more than expected between January and March to the extent financial markets and many economists now believe recession is inevitable.

The world's largest economy slowed sharply in the first quarter of the year, according to the first official estimate which has raised fears of recession ahead.

Growth was measured at an annualised rate of 1.1% between January and March, the Commerce Department said.

Economists had been expecting a figure of 2%.

The slump followed growth of 2.6%, by the same measure, during the final three months of 2023.

The growth was mainly explained by consumer spending holding up, probably due to a low unemployment rate, as the aggressive pace of interest rate rises to tame inflation hit other areas, such as the housing market, harder.

The data also pointed to a big reduction in business inventories - behaviour that is typically seen in anticipation of an economic downturn.

Economists are split on the prospect of recession being declared.

The definition of a technical recession across most of the world is two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

The Federal Reserve has raised its main interest rate to a range of 4.75%-5% and is expected to hike again next month


By that measure, the US economy would have been in recession during the first half of last year.

But the country defines such a contraction differently. It is determined by a committee of experts.

The US economy's low jobless rate largely prevented a recession being declared last year but conditions are darkening for 2023.

Many economists say the cumulative impact of the Fed Reserve's rate hikes has yet to be fully felt while the pace of hiring is slowing.

Many banks, which are charging higher interest rates as a result, have also muddied the waters due to a tightening of lending standards since the failure last month of two major banks - Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.

There are signs the crisis of confidence is not over yet as First Republic, a major regional lender, has seen a fresh run on its share price this week taking it to fresh lows.

It was effectively rescued last month by a $30bn cash injection from 11 major peers and revealed on Tuesday that $100bn had been withdrawn by depositors during the frenzy to grip the sector.

It has been reported that the federal government is unwilling to engineer a rescue.

Another political challenge is also gaining traction.

The Republican-dominated House of Representatives has moved to pressure President Biden over a looming debt ceiling deadline by voting to raise the limit only in exchange for big spending cuts.

A default would plunge the US economy into chaos so it forces Mr Biden to negotiate with his political opponents.

Brian Klimke, investment director at Cetera Investment Management, said of the economic growth figures: "January was really the standout month and since then we've seen weakness in February and March, which has really been slowly dragging down the economy.

"If we're looking to the future, data does seem to be continuing to weaken.

"The good news is we do think a recession could be mild."

Newsletter

Related Articles

Saudi Press
0:00
0:00
Close
Saudi Hotels Prepare for New Hospitality Roles as Alcohol Curbs Ease
Global Airports Forum Highlights Saudi Arabia’s Emergence as a Leading Aviation Powerhouse
Saudi Arabia Weighs Strategic Choice on Iran Amid Regional Turbulence
Not Only F-35s: Saudi Arabia to Gain Access to the World’s Most Sensitive Technology
Saudi Arabia Condemns Sydney Bondi Beach Shooting and Expresses Solidarity with Australia
Washington Watches Beijing–Riyadh Rapprochement as Strategic Balance Shifts
Saudi Arabia Urges Stronger Partnerships and Efficient Aid Delivery at OCHA Donor Support Meeting in Geneva
Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 Drives Measurable Lift in Global Reputation and Influence
Alcohol Policies Vary Widely Across Muslim-Majority Countries, With Many Permitting Consumption Under Specific Rules
Saudi Arabia Clarifies No Formal Ban on Photography at Holy Mosques for Hajj 2026
Libya and Saudi Arabia Sign Strategic MoU to Boost Telecommunications Cooperation
Elon Musk’s xAI Announces Landmark 500-Megawatt AI Data Center in Saudi Arabia
Israel Moves to Safeguard Regional Stability as F-35 Sales Debate Intensifies
Cardi B to Make Historic Saudi Arabia Debut at Soundstorm 2025 Festival
U.S. Democratic Lawmakers Raise National Security and Influence Concerns Over Paramount’s Hostile Bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Hackers Are Hiding Malware in Open-Source Tools and IDE Extensions
Traveling to USA? Homeland Security moving toward requiring foreign travelers to share social media history
Wall Street Analysts Clash With Riyadh Over Saudi Arabia’s Deficit Outlook
Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Cement $1 Trillion-Plus Deals in High-Profile White House Summit
Saudi Arabia Opens Alcohol Sales to Wealthy Non-Muslim Residents Under New Access Rules
U.S.–Saudi Rethink Deepens — Washington Moves Ahead Without Linking Riyadh to Israel Normalisation
Saudi Arabia and Israel Deprioritise Diplomacy: Normalisation No Longer a Middle-East Priority
Saudi Arabia Positions Itself as the Backbone of the Global AI Era
As Trump Deepens Ties with Saudi Arabia, Push for Israel Normalization Takes a Back Seat
Thai Food Village Debuts at Saudi Feast Food Festival 2025 Under Thai Commerce Minister Suphajee’s Lead
Saudi Arabia Sharpens Its Strategic Vision as Economic Transformation Enters New Phase
Saudi Arabia Projects $44 Billion Budget Shortfall in 2026 as Economy Rebalances
OPEC+ Unveils New Capacity-Based System to Anchor Future Oil Output Levels
Will Saudi Arabia End Up Bankrolling Israel’s Post-Ceasefire Order in Lebanon?
Saudi Arabia’s SAMAI Initiative Surpasses One-Million-Citizen Milestone in National AI Upskilling Drive
Saudi Arabia’s Specialty Coffee Market Set to Surge as Demand Soars and New Exhibition Drops in December
Saudi Arabia Moves to Open Two New Alcohol Stores for Foreigners Under Vision 2030 Reform
Saudi Arabia’s AI Ambitions Gain Momentum — but Water, Talent and Infrastructure Pose Major Hurdles
Tensions Surface in Trump-MBS Talks as Saudi Pushes Back on Israel Normalisation
Saudi Arabia Signals Major Maritime Crack-Down on Houthi Routes in Red Sea
Italy and Saudi Arabia Seal Over 20 Strategic Deals at Business Forum in Riyadh
COP30 Ends Without Fossil Fuel Phase-Out as US, Saudi Arabia and Russia Align in Obstruction Role
Saudi-Portuguese Economic Horizons Expand Through Strategic Business Council
DHL Commits $150 Million for Landmark Logistics Hub in Saudi Arabia
Saudi Aramco Weighs Disposals Amid $10 Billion-Plus Asset Sales Discussion
Trump Hosts Saudi Crown Prince for Major Defence and Investment Agreements
Families Accuse OpenAI of Enabling ‘AI-Driven Delusions’ After Multiple Suicides
Riyadh Metro Records Over One Hundred Million Journeys as Saudi Capital Accelerates Transit Era
Trump’s Grand Saudi Welcome Highlights U.S.–Riyadh Pivot as Israel Watches Warily
U.S. Set to Sell F-35 Jets to Saudi Arabia in Major Strategic Shift
Saudi Arabia Doubles Down on U.S. Partnership in Strategic Move
Saudi Arabia Charts Tech and Nuclear Leap Under Crown Prince’s U.S. Visit
Trump Elevates Saudi Arabia to Major Non-NATO Ally Amid Defense Deal
Trump Elevates Saudi Arabia to Major Non-NATO Ally as MBS Visit Yields Deepened Ties
Iran Appeals to Saudi Arabia to Mediate Restart of U.S. Nuclear Talks
×