Saudi Press

Saudi Arabia and the world
Sunday, Jun 01, 2025

Recovery disrupted: IMF cuts global economic growth forecast

Recovery disrupted: IMF cuts global economic growth forecast

Cut to global forecast largely reflects downward revisions to US and China outlooks.

The global economy is entering 2022 “in a weaker position than previously expected,” the International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday, as it downgraded its global growth outlook largely due to clouds gathering over the recoveries in the United States and China.

The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook calls for the global growth to downshift from 5.9 percent in 2021 to 4.4 percent this year. The 2022 forecast is half a percentage point lower than the Fund’s October outlook and largely reflects forecast markdowns for the world’s two largest economies.

The Fund saw the US economy growing 4.0 percent this year. That was 1.2 percentage points lower than its October call and reflected the failure to pass President Joe Biden’s Build Back Better spending plan, the Federal Reserve’s unwinding of pandemic stimulus measures, and continuing supply shortages that are driving inflation.

The IMF sees China’s economy growing 4.8 percent this year – 0.8 percentage points lower than its October forecast – thanks to the country’s business-sapping, zero-tolerance COVID-19 policy, and ongoing stress in its heavily indebted property sector.

Inflation, risks, and bright spots


Inflation has proven to be more persistent than the IMF bargained for back in October, thanks to continuing supply chain disruptions and high energy prices. The Fund sees those persisting this year, but gradually decreasing if inflation expectations remain anchored, “supply-demand imbalances wane in 2022” and central banks like the US Federal Reserve raise borrowing costs to rein in rising prices.

But as always, there are risks to the outlook, said the IMF, such as new COVID-19 variants that could prolong the pandemic and introduce fresh economic disruptions. Supply chain snarls, volatile energy prices, and localised wage pressures could create more uncertainty around inflation, said the Fund, while interest rate increases in advanced economies such as the US could negatively affect emerging and developing economies.

“Rising geopolitical tensions and social unrest also pose risks to the outlook,” IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath told reporters during a virtual news conference on Tuesday.

Gopinath said that total economic losses from the pandemic are expected to be close to $13.8 trillion through 2024. She also highlighted a recurring theme the Fund has raised since the global economy started its long slog back to pre-pandemic health, namely the widening recovery gap between richer and poorer nations.

“Even as recoveries continue, the troubling divergence in prospects across countries persists,” said Gopinath, noting that advanced economies are expected to return to their pre-pandemic trends this year, while several emerging markets and developing economies “are projected to have sizeable output losses into the medium term.”

The IMF downgraded its outlook for Brazil and Mexico, Latin America’s biggest economies, as well as South Africa.

While the overall trend for the globe is a recovery downshift, the IMF upgraded the outlook for India. It also sees the Middle East and North Africa getting a performance boost this year from higher energy prices.

“The MENA region is one where we actually have an upgrade for this year, so we’re expecting growth to be 4.4 which is an upgrade of point three,” Petya Koeva Brooks, deputy director at the IMF’s research department told reporters. “The main reason for that is the improved prospects for growth in oil exporters, which is again linked directly to the higher oil prices.”

Newsletter

Related Articles

Saudi Press
0:00
0:00
Close
OPEC+ Agrees to Increase Oil Output for Third Consecutive Month
Turkey Detains Istanbul Officials Amid Anti-Corruption Crackdown
Meta and Anduril Collaborate on AI-Driven Military Augmented Reality Systems
EU Central Bank Pushes to Replace US Dollar with Euro as World’s Main Currency
European and Arab Ministers Convene in Madrid to Address Gaza Conflict
U.S. Health Secretary Ends Select COVID-19 Vaccine Recommendations
Trump Warns Putin Is 'Playing with Fire' Amid Escalating Ukraine Conflict
India and Pakistan Engage Trump-Linked Lobbyists to Influence U.S. Policy
U.S. Halts New Student Visa Interviews Amid Enhanced Security Measures
Trump Administration Cancels $100 Million in Federal Contracts with Harvard
SpaceX Starship Test Flight Ends in Failure, Mars Mission Timeline Uncertain
King Charles Affirms Canadian Sovereignty Amid U.S. Statehood Pressure
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Founder Warns Against Trusting Regime in Nuclear Talks
UAE Offers Free ChatGPT Plus Subscriptions to Citizens
Lebanon Initiates Plan to Disarm Palestinian Factions
Iran and U.S. Make Limited Progress in Nuclear Talks
The Daily Debate: The Fall of the Dollar — Strategic Reset or Economic Self-Destruction?
Trump Administration's Tariff Policies and Dollar Strategy Spark Global Economic Debate
OpenAI Acquires Jony Ive’s Startup for $6.5 Billion to Build a Revolutionary “Third Core Device”
Turkey Weighs Citizens in Public as Erdoğan Launches National Slimming Campaign
Saudi-Spanish Business Forum Commences in Riyadh
Saudi Arabia and Spain Sign MoU to Boost SME Sectors
UK Suspends Trade Talks with Israel Amid Gaza Offensive
Iran and U.S. Set for Fifth Round of Nuclear Talks Amid Rising Tensions
Russia Expands Military Presence Near Finland Amid Rising Tensions
Indian Scholar Arrested in Crackdown Over Pakistan Conflict Commentary
Israel Eases Gaza Blockade Amid Internal Dispute Over Military Strategy
President Biden’s announcement of advanced prostate cancer sparked public sympathy—but behind closed doors, Democrats are in panic
A Chinese company made solar tiles that look way nicer than regular panels!
Indian jet shootdown: the all-robot legion behind China’s PL-15E missiles
The Chinese Dragon: The True Winner in the India-Pakistan Clash
Australia's Venomous Creatures Contribute to Life-Saving Antivenom Programme
The Spanish Were Right: Long Working Hours Harm Brain Function
Did Former FBI Director Call for Violence Against Trump? Instagram Post Sparks Uproar
US and UAE Partner to Develop Massive AI Data Center Complex
Apple's $95 Million Siri Settlement: Eligible Users Have Until July 2 to File Claims
US and UAE Reach Preliminary Agreement on Nvidia AI Chip Imports
President Trump and Elon Musk Welcomed by Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim with Cybertruck Convoy
Strong Warning Issued: Do Not Use General Chatbots for Medical, Legal, or Educational Guidance
Saudi Arabia Emerges as Global Tech Magnet with U.S. Backing and Trump’s Visit
This was President's departure from Saudi Arabia. The Crown Prince personally escorted him back to the airport.
NVIDIA and Saudi Arabia Launch Strategic Partnership to Establish AI Centers
Trump Meets Syrian President Ahmad al-Shara in Historic Encounter
Trump takes a blow torch to the neocons and interventionists while speaking to the Saudis
US and Saudi Arabia Sign Landmark Agreements Across Multiple Sectors
Why Saudi Arabia Rolled Out a Purple Carpet for Donald Trump Instead of Red
Elon Musk Joins Trump Meeting in Saudi Arabia
Trump says it would be 'stupid' not to accept gift of Qatari plane
Quantum Computing Threatens Bitcoin Security
Michael Jordan to Serve as Analyst for NBA Games
×