OPEC+ to Keep Oil Output Policy Unchanged Despite Saudi-UAE Tensions Over Yemen
The oil alliance’s key producers reaffirm plans to sustain current production levels into early 2026 even as a diplomatic rift between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates intensifies amid Yemen conflict
OPEC+ is set to maintain its current oil production policy through the first quarter of 2026 despite rising political tensions between two of its most influential members, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, sources close to the alliance have said.
Delegates from the eight-member OPEC+ subgroup, which includes Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, indicated that last November’s agreement to pause further output increases for January, February and March will remain in place at a meeting scheduled for early January.
The decision underlines the organisation’s preference for focusing on market fundamentals rather than allowing geopolitical disputes to disrupt long-established production agreements.
The backdrop to this announcement is an escalating dispute between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi over military and political developments in Yemen, where UAE-backed separatists seized territory in the south late last year and Saudi-aligned forces have since struck positions and supply routes.
This public rift, one of the most serious disagreements between the Gulf rivals in years, has prompted the UAE to announce plans to withdraw its remaining forces from Yemen while maintaining political support for its allied factions.
Despite these tensions, OPEC+ insiders said that the alliance’s cohesion on oil policy — particularly its commitment to balancing global supply and demand and supporting prices — remains intact.
The group’s planned output stance responds to a significant decline in oil prices through 2025 as oversupply concerns persisted, even as global demand shows signs of stabilisation.
Sources emphasise that OPEC+ has weathered internal disputes before by prioritising market stability, and the Yemen-related disagreements are not expected to derail scheduled discussions on production.
With crude prices having fallen sharply over the past year and inventories relatively high, maintaining the current output framework reflects a cautious approach to avoid further depressing prices.
As OPEC+ ministers convene, analysts will be watching closely for any signals that the internal political rift could influence future decisions, but for now the alliance appears committed to its established policy path for the coming quarter.
Delegates from the eight-member OPEC+ subgroup, which includes Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, indicated that last November’s agreement to pause further output increases for January, February and March will remain in place at a meeting scheduled for early January.
The decision underlines the organisation’s preference for focusing on market fundamentals rather than allowing geopolitical disputes to disrupt long-established production agreements.
The backdrop to this announcement is an escalating dispute between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi over military and political developments in Yemen, where UAE-backed separatists seized territory in the south late last year and Saudi-aligned forces have since struck positions and supply routes.
This public rift, one of the most serious disagreements between the Gulf rivals in years, has prompted the UAE to announce plans to withdraw its remaining forces from Yemen while maintaining political support for its allied factions.
Despite these tensions, OPEC+ insiders said that the alliance’s cohesion on oil policy — particularly its commitment to balancing global supply and demand and supporting prices — remains intact.
The group’s planned output stance responds to a significant decline in oil prices through 2025 as oversupply concerns persisted, even as global demand shows signs of stabilisation.
Sources emphasise that OPEC+ has weathered internal disputes before by prioritising market stability, and the Yemen-related disagreements are not expected to derail scheduled discussions on production.
With crude prices having fallen sharply over the past year and inventories relatively high, maintaining the current output framework reflects a cautious approach to avoid further depressing prices.
As OPEC+ ministers convene, analysts will be watching closely for any signals that the internal political rift could influence future decisions, but for now the alliance appears committed to its established policy path for the coming quarter.
