Saudi Arabia Set to Reduce February Crude Prices to Asia for a Third Consecutive Month
The world’s top oil exporter is expected to trim official selling prices amid abundant global supply and weak spot markets, extending recent price declines
Saudi Arabia is preparing to lower its official selling prices for crude oil destined for Asia in February, potentially marking the third consecutive month of reductions as global supply remains abundant and spot market benchmarks soften.
Refining sources in Asia say the official selling price for the kingdom’s flagship Arab Light grade is likely to fall by between ten and thirty cents a barrel against the Oman/Dubai average, bringing it to a premium of around thirty to fifty cents per barrel — the lowest level seen in more than five years.
The expected cuts, which follow price declines in January and December, reflect broader downward pressure in the physical oil market amid high output from OPEC+ producers and other major suppliers, including the United States.
The anticipated move comes even as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners have agreed to pause further output increases in the first quarter of 2026 after adding nearly three million barrels per day to the market throughout 2025.
Other Saudi crude grades are also likely to see adjustments: Arab Extra Light may be reduced by around ten to twenty cents a barrel, while Arab Medium and Arab Heavy prices could remain flat or dip slightly.
The pricing decisions by Saudi Aramco, which typically announces official selling prices around the fifth of each month, set a benchmark for pricing across the Middle East and influence the terms for roughly nine million barrels per day of crude shipments to Asia.
The projected price cuts underscore persistent imbalances in the global oil market, with supply projected to exceed demand significantly in 2026. Despite geopolitical tensions and occasional disruptions in supply from regions such as Venezuela, producers are navigating a landscape characterised by oversupply and fluctuating demand growth.
As Asia remains one of the largest markets for Saudi crude, continued pricing adjustments are likely to shape regional trade flows and refinery margins in the weeks ahead.
Refining sources in Asia say the official selling price for the kingdom’s flagship Arab Light grade is likely to fall by between ten and thirty cents a barrel against the Oman/Dubai average, bringing it to a premium of around thirty to fifty cents per barrel — the lowest level seen in more than five years.
The expected cuts, which follow price declines in January and December, reflect broader downward pressure in the physical oil market amid high output from OPEC+ producers and other major suppliers, including the United States.
The anticipated move comes even as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners have agreed to pause further output increases in the first quarter of 2026 after adding nearly three million barrels per day to the market throughout 2025.
Other Saudi crude grades are also likely to see adjustments: Arab Extra Light may be reduced by around ten to twenty cents a barrel, while Arab Medium and Arab Heavy prices could remain flat or dip slightly.
The pricing decisions by Saudi Aramco, which typically announces official selling prices around the fifth of each month, set a benchmark for pricing across the Middle East and influence the terms for roughly nine million barrels per day of crude shipments to Asia.
The projected price cuts underscore persistent imbalances in the global oil market, with supply projected to exceed demand significantly in 2026. Despite geopolitical tensions and occasional disruptions in supply from regions such as Venezuela, producers are navigating a landscape characterised by oversupply and fluctuating demand growth.
As Asia remains one of the largest markets for Saudi crude, continued pricing adjustments are likely to shape regional trade flows and refinery margins in the weeks ahead.
