Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey are unlikely to accept an expanded Israeli presence in Somalia, according to regional security analysts assessing the rapidly evolving dynamics of the Horn of Africa.

The assessment reflects long-standing sensitivities among influential regional actors over military, intelligence and diplomatic footholds near key maritime routes.

Experts note that Somalia’s strategic location along the Gulf of Aden and close to the Red Sea makes it a focal point for regional competition.

Egypt is highly attentive to developments that could affect Red Sea security and Nile-linked strategic interests, while Saudi Arabia has prioritised stability along critical shipping lanes and the security of its western maritime approaches.

Turkey, which already maintains a significant footprint in Somalia through military training, infrastructure projects and diplomatic engagement, is also viewed as keen to preserve its influence and partnerships in the country.

Analysts suggest Ankara would be cautious about any development that could dilute its role or introduce new strategic variables.

Israel’s regional engagement, observers emphasise, has focused on pragmatic security cooperation and diplomatic normalisation elsewhere, particularly where mutual interests align.

In the Somali context, however, experts argue that entrenched regional interests and existing alliances make any overt Israeli foothold politically complex and diplomatically sensitive.

The analysis underscores how Somalia has become an arena shaped less by bilateral initiatives and more by overlapping regional calculations.

While Israel continues to strengthen ties across parts of the Middle East and beyond, specialists say the Horn of Africa remains an area where regional consensus and balance of power considerations are likely to constrain new external roles.