Saudi Press

Saudi Arabia and the world
Thursday, Oct 02, 2025

Oil could 'easily' hit $120 if Russia-Ukraine crisis escalates, JPMorgan warns

Oil could 'easily' hit $120 if Russia-Ukraine crisis escalates, JPMorgan warns

Oil prices could soar to $120 a barrel if Russia's crude exports are derailed by tensions with Ukraine, according to projections from JPMorgan.

The forecast underscores how a potential invasion of Ukraine would cause wide-ranging ripple effects that would be felt by inflation-weary consumers around the world.

"Any disruptions to oil flows from Russia in a context of low spare capacity in other regions could easily send oil prices to $120," Natasha Kaneva, JPMorgan's head of global commodities strategy, wrote in the report published late Tuesday.

Such a spike from about $91 today would drive up prices at the pump, which hit a fresh seven-year high on Wednesday.

JPMorgan warned that if Russian oil exports are cut in half, Brent oil prices would likely race to $150 a barrel. The all-time high for oil prices was set in July 2008, when Brent spiked to a record at $147.50 a barrel.

How oil supplies could be threatened


Russia-Ukraine tensions have helped inflate oil prices in recent weeks. Brent crude hit a fresh seven-year high of $94 a barrel on Monday, although it has since retreated to around $91.

Russia is the world's No. 2 producer of both oil and natural gas, second only to the United States for each category. The country plays a key role at OPEC+, the producer group that has only gradually added back production that was sidelined during the onset of Covid.

The Russia-Ukraine crisis poses several risks to the oil market.

First, such a conflict could potentially damage energy infrastructure in the region. Secondly, Western powers could seek to punish Russia by imposing sanctions that cripple the country's energy exports, although US officials have signaled a preference for penalizing other sectors of its economy first.

And then there is the risk that Russian President Vladimir Putin retaliates by weaponizing exports of oil and natural gas. Higher natural gas prices in Europe would drive up oil demand as factories and power plants switch to oil instead.

Prices at the pump are at seven-year highs


Oil prices have cooled off a bit in recent days on hopes of easing Russia-Ukraine tensions, as well as signs of progress on reaching a new Iranian nuclear deal.

Gas prices, which move with a lag to oil, are still catching up to the recent oil surge. The national average for gas hit $3.47 a gallon on Wednesday, up seven cents in the past week alone, according to AAA.

Despite the Russia-Ukraine standoff, the Energy Department's forecasting arm is projecting energy prices will cool off later this year as supply finally meets demand.

The US Energy Information Administration projects gasoline prices will average $3.24 a gallon this year. That's below current levels, although it is above the EIA's December forecast for $2.88 a gallon in 2022.

The EIA expects prices at the pump will slide below $3 a gallon in the final quarter of this year and Brent crude to tumble to an average of $68 a barrel for all of 2023.

Russia is also leading producer of natural gas — and its biggest customer is Europe, which is already grappling with very high home heating costs.

"A disruption in exports on any of the major pipelines could place Europe's natural gas balance in a precarious situation, particularly given that 2022 started with record-low European gas inventories," JPMorgan warned.

Newsletter

Related Articles

Saudi Press
0:00
0:00
Close
Altman Says GPT-5 Already Outpaces Him, Warns AI Could Automate 40% of Work
Trump Organization Teams with Saudi Developer on $1 Billion Trump Plaza in Jeddah
Electronic Arts to Be Taken Private in Historic $55 Billion Buyout
Colombian President Petro Vows to Mobilize Volunteers for Gaza and Joins List of Fighters
Nvidia and Abu Dhabi’s TII Launch First AI-&-Robotics Lab in the Middle East
UK, Canada, and Australia Officially Recognise Palestine in Historic Shift
New Eye Drops Show Promise in Replacing Reading Glasses for Presbyopia
Dubai Property Boom Shows Strain as Flippers Get Buyer’s Remorse
Top AI Researchers Are Heading Back to China as U.S. Struggles to Keep Pace
JWST Data Brings TRAPPIST-1e Closer to Earth-Like Habitability
UAE-US Stargate Project Poised to Make Abu Dhabi a Global AI Powerhouse
Trump and Starmer Clash Over UK Recognition of Palestinian State Amid State Visit
Saudi Arabia cracks down on music ‘lounges’ after conservative backlash
Saudi Arabia Signs ‘Strategic Mutual Defence’ Pact with Pakistan, Marking First Arab State to Gain Indirect Access to Nuclear Strike Capabilities in the Region
Sam Altman sells the 'Wedding Estate' in Hawaii for 49 million dollars
Turkish car manufacturer Togg Enters German Market with 5-Star Electric Sedan and SUV to Challenge European EV Brands
World’s Longest Direct Flight China Eastern to Launch 29-Hour Shanghai–Buenos Aires Direct Flight via Auckland in December
New OpenAI Study Finds Majority of ChatGPT Use Is Personal, Not Professional
Kuwait opens bidding for construction of three cities to ease housing crunch.
This Week in AI: Meta’s Superintelligence Push, xAI’s Ten Billion-Dollar Raise, Genesis AI’s Robotics Ambitions, Microsoft Restructuring, Amazon’s Million-Robot Milestone, and Google’s AlphaGenome Update
Indian Student Engineers Propose “Project REBIRTH” to Protect Aircraft from Crashes Using AI, Airbags and Smart Materials
Could AI Nursing Robots Help Healthcare Staffing Shortages?
Turkish authorities seize leading broadcaster amid fraud and tax investigation
Qatari prime minister says Netanyahu ‘killed any hope’ for Israeli hostages
Apple Introduces Ultra-Thin iPhone Air, Enhanced 17 Series and New Health-Focused Wearables
Big Oil Slashes Jobs and Investments Amid Prolonged Low Crude Prices
Social Media Access Curtailed in Turkey After CHP Calls for Rallies Following Police Blockade of Istanbul Headquarters
Did the Houthis disrupt the internet in the Middle East? Submarine cables cut in the Red Sea
Gold Could Reach Nearly $5,000 if Fed Independence Is Undermined, Goldman Sachs Warns
Uruguay, Colombia and Paraguay Secure Places at 2026 World Cup
Trump Administration Advances Plans to Rebrand Pentagon as Department of War Instead of the Fake Term Department of Defense
Tether Expands into Gold Sector with Profit-Driven Diversification
Trump’s New War – and the ‘Drug Tyrant’ Fearing Invasion: ‘1,200 Missiles Aimed at Us’
At the Parade in China: Laser Weapons, 'Eagle Strike,' and a Missile Capable of 'Striking Anywhere in the World'
Information Warfare in the Age of AI: How Language Models Become Targets and Tools
Israeli Airstrike in Yemen Kills Houthi Prime Minister
After the Shock of Defeat, Iranians Yearn for Change
YouTube Altered Content by Artificial Intelligence – Without Permission
Iran Faces Escalating Water Crisis as Protests Spread
More Than Half a Million Evacuated as Typhoon Kajiki Heads for Vietnam
HSBC Switzerland Ends Relationships with Over 1,000 Clients from Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Qatar, and Egypt
Sharia Law Made Legally Binding in Austria Despite Warnings Over 'Incompatible' Values
Dogfights in the Skies: Airbus on Track to Overtake Boeing and Claim Aviation Supremacy
Tim Cook Promises an AI Revolution at Apple: "One of the Most Significant Technologies of Our Generation"
Are AI Data Centres the Infrastructure of the Future or the Next Crisis?
Miles Worth Billions: How Airlines Generate Huge Profits
Zelenskyy Returns to White House Flanked by European Allies as Trump Pressures Land-Swap Deal with Putin
Beijing is moving into gold and other assets, diversifying away from the dollar
Cristiano Ronaldo Makes Surprise Stop at New Hong Kong Museum
Zelenskyy to Visit Washington after Trump–Putin Summit Yields No Agreement
×