Despite hopes for significant political reform, the winds of the National Assembly (parliament) elections did not sail in the government's favor, nor did they meet the expectations of several other factions that were anticipating a substantial shift in the political landscape governing legislative authority for nearly a decade. The anticipated change turned out to be minimal, with only about a 10% turnover in parliamentary composition compared to the expected 22%, keeping 90% of the previous assembly intact. This included the return of three former MPs to the parliament: Saleh Ashour and Ahmed al-Fadhl from the 2016 council, and Dr. Obaid al-Wasmi from the 2020 council, resulting in only 8 new members out of 50 seats.

The recent elections followed the dissolution of the 2023 parliament, which had not lasted more than 9 months. This unprecedented dissolution was justified by "deviations from constitutional constants and deliberate use of unrestricted offensive expressions," according to Decree No. 16 of 2024 issued on February 15. Since becoming the Crown Prince, Sheikh Meshal Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah, now the Amir of Kuwait, has emphasized "correcting the course". In his first speech to the parliament after swearing in, he fiercely criticized both legislative and executive branches for colluding against the country’s interests.

Election Surprises

The first surprise of the elections was the complete return of old faces, including those deemed "hawks". Abdul Karim Al-Kandari, the MP whose actions led to the dissolution decree, won overwhelmingly in the third district with 9,428 votes.

Another surprise was the voter turnout, exceeding 62%, a high participation rate given the elections occurred towards the end of Ramadan and amidst a lack of hope for real change. This high turnout underscored the public’s concern for the future of Kuwait’s electoral experience and a desire to uphold it amid recurring dissolutions of the parliament. Additionally, the elections highlighted concerns over nationality fraud, a key issue raised by the government alongside the election campaign.

Despite the slight changes, the elections resulted in a parliament dominated by the opposition, maintaining 29 out of 50 seats, although fragmented. The assembly is equally split between the urban dwellers (25 MPs) and the tribes (25 MPs). Sunni Islamists secured a considerable portion (8 seats for the Salafist movement), and one seat went to the Constitutional Islamic Movement (Muslim Brotherhood), with additional members being close affiliates across various constituencies. Shia Islamists won three seats, and notably, the elections saw a reduction in Shia voter turnout for Shia candidates, favoring liberal or independent ones instead.

Future Challenges

The election outcomes were apparent when the Prime Minister-elect, Dr. Mohammad Sabah Al-Salem, opted not to form the upcoming government after his brief tenure as Prime Minister, prompting the appointment of a new Prime Minister, Sheikh Ahmad Abdullah Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah. As Kuwait's 11th Prime Minister, his government, being the 46th in Kuwait's history, will inherit the challenges of navigating through a predominantly opposition-held parliament, differing parliamentary relationship due to previous governmental roles, and expectations for addressing urgent national issues, including economic reforms and citizenship fraud.

Expectations and Future Prospects

Political analyst Dr. Ayed Mana'a anticipates a "tug of war" between the new parliament and the upcoming government. The new Prime Minister's historical ministerial roles and how these relationships evolve could determine the future political climate. The government’s approach to engaging with the parliament and addressing MPs' demands lawfully and swiftly will be crucial in averting a potential rift.

Who is the New Prime Minister?

Sheikh Ahmad Abdullah Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah, born on September 5, 1952, comes from a prestigious lineage and has held several key ministerial positions, indicating a wealth of experience in governance. His educational background in economics and finance, along with a diverse portfolio in governmental roles, sets a precedent for his leadership style. However, his path forward will require navigating through parliamentary confrontations, reflecting past challenges during his ministerial tenure. The new Prime Minister’s approach in balancing legislative relations and addressing critical national issues will be pivotal in shaping Kuwait's political and economic landscape.