Saudi Press

Saudi Arabia and the world
Saturday, Feb 22, 2025

Ma’rib future scenarios after Ansarullah’s peace proposal

Ma’rib future scenarios after Ansarullah’s peace proposal

Months after clashes between Yemeni Ansarullah movement and the Saudi-backed mercenaries in Ma'rib and despite Saudi-Emirati airstrikes and deployment of al-Qaeda militants to put the brakes on the rapid advances of the Yemeni popular forces, the push to liberate the strategic city is nearing its end, as the President of the Supreme Revolutionary Committee Mohammed Ali al-Houthi said Ansarullah and the Yemeni army are now at the city's doorsteps.
Meanwhile, while war may intensify as the Saudi side is opposing peace and setting up roadblocks ahead of a solution, on Tuesday Ansarullah proposed to Aden and Riyadh a four-point plan to end fighting and teach a political settlement on Ma'rib control.

First point suggests forming a management mechanism comprised of Ma'rib residents to secure the city and expel Al-Qaeda and ISIS terrorists.

The second point proposes offering freedom of movement, releasing the abductees, compensating the damages, allowing return of the displaced, and avoiding attacks on civilians.

In the third point, Sana’a-based government asked for allocation of oil tanker revenues in Hudaydah for payments to employees.

In the fourth point Sana'a suggested that the gas supplying stations resume their work, other provinces be given their gas and oil shares, and a joint committee form to repair Safer-Rai Isa pipeline.

Why is Ma'rib control important?

Sana'a's extensive efforts to take control of Ma'rib and the Saudi coalition's strong pushback are indicative of the city's significance in determining the future of war. For Ansarullah, the ability to control Ma'rib more than anything else is a success in capturing the last stronghold of the opposition in the north. In addition to its location, which connects many of Yemen's trade lines, Ma'rib has the largest power station in Yemen and a wealth of natural resources, especially with 90 percent of its oil and gas resources.

In 2015, the local officials loyal to the resigned President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi, under Saudi pressures, declared that they separated their financial system and operations from Sana'a and that the local branch of the central bank stopped delivering oil revenues to the central bank headquarters in Sana'a.

Now that Sana'a is facing economic problems and a lack of financial resources to run and manage the economy of the areas under its control, controlling oil and gas revenues of Ma'rib can solve some of these problems, especially it can help with paying the delayed state employees' salaries. But now and while Ansarullah has the upper hand and can completely control the city, for a set of reasons Sana'a chooses diplomatic procedures to settle the crisis.

First, Ansarullah after months-long clashes figured out that prolonged battle for Ma'rib can undermine the advances south and westward.

Second, in recent years Ma'rib had turned into a refuge for massive people fleeing the clash spots. This increases the warring sides' responsibility in the war. In just four years, its population has increased 50 percent, making Ma'rib a large and bustling city. According to local officials, the city's population has grown from about 40,000 to more than 1.5 million. Many refugees have been housed in dozens of large, temporary camps at the foot of the mountains, increasing the vulnerability of civilians to war.

Third, Ansarullah's missile and drone strikes have left destructive effects on the Saudi economy. This makes the Yemeni revolutionary movement optimistic that Riyadh rulers in the near future will accept their terms and deliver oil incomes to Sana'a. Also, Sana'a is aware of fissures between the Saudis and some Ma'rib tribes and these conflict points and governance challenges can easily turn the tide to Ansarullah favor. Some of tribal leaders in Ma'rib are dissatisfied with the local officials' performance and sometimes their discontentment results in clashes with security forces.

Tribes often accuse local officials of belonging to the Islah Party, a branch of the Muslim Brotherhood in Yemen. Officials deny the allegations, noting that most of their leaders, including the governor of Ma'rib, are members of the People's General Congress, the political party of the slain President Ali Abdullah Saleh.

Fourth, there is also disagreement among the Ma'rib tribes. Outside the city, for example, there are dozens of historical sites, including the throne of the Queen of Sheba, the Temple Awaam and the old Ma'rib Dam, as the most famous relics of Yemen's ancient civilizations. Weak governance and tribal conflicts over the ownership put these places in a grave situation.

Ma'rib future scenarios

When Ma'rib future scenarios are contemplated, two scenarios are highly likely: The city will fall to Ansarullah or the diplomatic efforts to solve the crisis will succeed.

For Ansarullah, the first scenario means strengthening central government and undermining the enemy’s economic pressures. After all, Ma'rib would give the government in Sana'a all the resources to settle the financial troubles in the areas under the revolutionaries. For Hadi and Saudis, losing Ma'rib means a fatal blow to their political and military conditions, especially at a time the Southern Transitional Council (STC) is building its power and mobilizing its resources in the south.

The second scenario is accepting Sana'a conditions that would be because of Ansarullah's military pressures and success of Oman's mediatory efforts. Under this scenario Sana'a by wresting concessions from the opposite side can somehow neutralize the economic pressures, widen the division in the opposite camp, and also shore up its legitimacy at home and abroad as Yemen's legal government.

There no doubt that Yemen's fate is tied to battle for Ma'rib. The results of this battle influence the future struggle for welfare in the war-ravaged nation. What is not yet clear is that how Yemen and its leaders will shape the battle.
Newsletter

Related Articles

Saudi Press
0:00
0:00
Close
Saudi Arabia and the United States Strengthen Ties Amid Global Developments
Saudi Arabia Hosts Global Conference to Promote Islamic Unity
The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Education and Child Development
Saudi Arabia Announces Competition for Best Founding Day Outfits
Saudi-EU Food Security Officials Hold Talks to Strengthen Collaboration
Putin Expresses Gratitude to Saudi Crown Prince for Hosting US-Russia Talks
UK and Saudi Arabia Enhance Collaboration in Innovation and Technology
Denmark's Embassy in Riyadh Showcases Danish Cuisine with Saudi Influence
Saudi Artist Salman Al-Amir Unveils 'Tafawut' Exhibition in Riyadh
Saudi Arabia Offers Condolences to Kuwait Following Military Exercise Fatalities
Saudi Ministry of Islamic Affairs Completes Ramadan Preparations in Madinah
Etidal Secretary-General Hosts UN Counter-Terrorism Director in Riyadh
ADNOC Drilling Targets Over $1 Billion in Investments for 2025 Amid Gulf Expansion Plans
Derayah Financial Achieves Remarkable Growth in Saudi Brokerage and Asset Management
Saudi Arabia Shortlists 30 Firms for Mining Licenses in Eastern Province and Tabuk
Saudi Foreign Minister Engages Counterparts at G20 Meeting in Johannesburg
Oil Prices Decline Amid Rising US Inventories
Saudi Arabia's NDMC Plans Green Bond Issuance by 2025
Moody’s Affirms Egypt’s Caa1 Rating Amid Positive Economic Outlook
Oman and Saudi Arabia Strengthen Economic Ties with New Agreements
Saudi Arabia Investments Propel Expansion of Qurayyah Power Plant
Saudi Capital Market Authority Advances SPACs and Direct Listings
Global Energy Leaders Gather in Riyadh for Symposium on Energy Outlooks
Al-Ahsa Region Sees 500% Growth in Tourism as Saudi Arabia Prioritizes Development
Saudi Arabia Advances Entrepreneurial Ecosystem in Al-Ahsa with New Agreement
King Salman Approves Official Saudi Riyal Symbol
Saudi Credit Card Lending Reaches $8.4 Billion Amid Digital Payment Expansion
King Salman Approves Official Symbol for Saudi Riyal
Putin Thanks Saudi Crown Prince for Facilitating U.S.-Russia Discussions
Saudi Foreign Minister Attends G20 Meeting in Johannesburg
Saudi Arabia Prepares for Nationwide Founding Day Celebrations
Inauguration of Hira Park and Walkway Enhances Jeddah's Urban Landscape
Crown Prince Hosts Leaders for Informal Meeting in Riyadh Amid Gaza Rebuilding Plans
Saudi Official Highlights Achievements and Media's Role in National Transformation
Three Expatriate Women Arrested for Prostitution in Riyadh
Saudi Arabia's Diplomatic Evolution Highlighted at Saudi Media Forum
Healthy Eating and Preparation Essential for Ramadan Fasting
Saudi Arabia and Japan Forge Sustainable Textile Partnership
Advanced Limb Surgery Restores Mobility in Pediatric Cancer Patient
Jeddah Event Explores AI's Role in Boosting Saudi Arabia's SME Sector
UN Representative Highlights AI's Role in Perpetuating Gender Stereotypes
Saudi and Jordanian Leaders Discuss Enhanced Security Cooperation in Amman
Saudi British Society Honors Cultural Bridge-Builders at London Gala
Saudi Media Forum 2025 Explores AI's Role in Modern Journalism
Saudi Arabia's Saqer Al-Moqbel Appointed as WTO General Council President for 2025–2026
Saudi Deputy Ministers Engage in Diplomatic Discussions with U.S. and Dutch Officials in Riyadh
Saudi Arabia to Launch Iftar Program in 61 Countries During Ramadan
Saudi Visitors Expected to Spend £942 Million in UK During 2025
Saudi Arabia Gifts Kaaba's Kiswah to Uzbekistan's Center of Islamic Civilization
Digital Cooperation Organization Concludes Fourth General Assembly with Multiple Agreements
×