Saudi Press

Saudi Arabia and the world
Saturday, Aug 02, 2025

Ukraine crisis brings British intelligence out of the shadows

Ukraine crisis brings British intelligence out of the shadows

Analysis: warnings of Russian invasion issued in bid to shape the narrative and win information war with Kremlin

British intelligence, so used to operating in the shadows, has been thrust into the spotlight during the Ukraine crisis, cited by Boris Johnson on Wednesday to warn that Russian troop numbers were still increasing or by the foreign secretary, Liz Truss, last month to warn of a possible coup in Kyiv.

As the crisis has intensified, the warnings have, if anything, become even less subtle. An extraordinary video released on Thursday by the Ministry of Defence, billed in capital letters as an “intelligence update”, included a Dad’s Army-style map showing a possible Russian invasion plan and other assessments aimed at the general public.


A female narrator carefully intones “our intelligence tells us” that Russia has been rapidly been building up forces near Ukraine’s border – as has been documented by independent analysts – and that “an invasion could happen within days”. On Twitter the two-minute clip has been viewed more than 66,000 times.

Behind the scenes the effort has been matched by a string of off-the-record briefings from which information has emerged, supported by quotes sourced to officials. It marks an unusually determined and focused effort to seize control of the Ukraine story from the Kremlin, traditionally considered expert in what is sometimes described as information warfare.

“It’s a very different approach from the past, when intelligence and information was more closely guarded,” said Prof Malcolm Chalmers of the Rusi thinktank. “What Britain and the west have learned from the last Ukraine crisis in 2014 is that if you don’t actively use your intelligence to shape the narrative, then you will lose ground to Russia.”

The Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova called on western media to publish a schedule of imminent invasions so she could plan her holidays.


Russia’s seizure of the Crimea in 2014 appeared to come as something of a surprise to an apparently sleepy Nato. And the image of the military alliance was further damaged last summer during the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, where the idea of a Taliban takeover was barely mentioned or discussed until the fall of Kabul.

This time the thinking is that highlighting Vladimir Putin’s possible intentions leaves less room for Kremlin deniability. The west has for some time considered that Moscow is seeking to manufacture a provocation in Ukraine, a false flag, to justify an intervention – a concern that has heightened following false claims by Putin this week that there was “genocide” against Russians in Donbas.

The UK supported US intelligence claims that Russia was considering making a “very graphic” video showing a faked drone attack to justify military intervention. “We are trying to expose Russian intent,” said one anonymous western official on Friday. They argued that any embarrassment from being wrong would be a small price to pay if Ukraine was not attacked.

Nevertheless, bandying about intelligence assessments in the public domain can be fraught with difficulties. They are usually based around simple, headline-worthy conclusions – judging that a Russian attack was “highly likely”, as the UK defence secretary, Ben Wallace, said last weekend. But often these come with little or no supporting evidence, making it hard to convince a public who can still remember the exaggerated accusations made about Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in the run-up to the 2003 war.

Russia, too, is ready to exploit misjudgments. This week Kremlin officials gleefully pointed out that no invasion of Ukraine came on Wednesday after some unwisely precise predictions had emerged from the US over the weekend. Russia’s foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova called on western media “to publish the schedule for our upcoming invasions for the year” so that she could plan her holidays.

Yet the reality is that in the era of social media, full of analysts and commentators making their own judgments about satellite imagery and online videos, relative silence for Britain’s secretive intelligence community is not an option. “Communications and the information space is one of those areas you have to contest,” said one Whitehall insider, one Dad’s Army-style visual a time.

Newsletter

Related Articles

Saudi Press
0:00
0:00
Close
British Tourist Dies Following Hair Transplant in Turkey, Police Investigate
WhatsApp Users Targeted in New Scam Involving Account Takeovers
Trump Deploys Nuclear Submarines After Threats from Former Russian President Medvedev
Germany’s Economic Breakdown and the Return of Militarization: From Industrial Collapse to a New Offensive Strategy
IMF Upgrades Global Growth Forecast as Weaker Dollar Supports Outlook
Politics is a good business: Barack Obama’s Reported Net Worth Growth, 1990–2025
"Crazy Thing": OpenAI's Sam Altman Warns Of AI Voice Fraud Crisis In Banking
Japanese Prime Minister Vows to Stay After Coalition Loses Upper House Majority
President Trump Diagnosed with Chronic Venous Insufficiency After Leg Swelling
Man Dies After Being Pulled Into MRI Machine Due to Metal Chain in New York Clinic
FIFA Pressured to Rethink World Cup Calendar Due to Climate Change
"Can You Hit Moscow?" Trump Asked Zelensky To Make Putin "Feel The Pain"
Nvidia Becomes World’s First Four‑Trillion‑Dollar Company Amid AI Boom
Iranian President Reportedly Injured During Israeli Strike on Secret Facility
Kurdistan Workers Party Takes Symbolic Step Towards Peace in Northern Iraq
BRICS Expands Membership with Indonesia and Ten New Partner Countries
Elon Musk Founds a Party Following a Poll on X: "You Wanted It – You Got It!"
AI Raises Alarms Over Long-Term Job Security
Saudi Arabia Maintains Ties with Iran Despite Israel Conflict
Russia Formally Recognizes Taliban Government in Afghanistan
Mediators Edge Closer to Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Agreement
Emirates Airline Expands Market Share with New $20 Million Campaign
House Oversight Committee Subpoenas Former Jill Biden Aide Amid Investigation into Alleged Concealment of President Biden's Cognitive Health
Amazon Reaches Major Automation Milestone with Over One Million Robots
Meta Announces Formation of Ambitious AI Unit, Meta Superintelligence Labs
China Unveils Miniature Insect-Like Surveillance Drone
Marc Marquez Claims Victory at Dutch Grand Prix Amidst Family Misfortune
Iran Executes Alleged Israeli Spies and Arrests Hundreds Amid Post-War Crackdown
Trump Asserts Readiness for Further Strikes on Iran Amid Nuclear Tensions
Iran's Parliament Votes to Suspend Cooperation with Nuclear Watchdog
Trump Announces Upcoming US-Iran Meeting Amid Controversial Airstrikes
Trump Moves to Reshape Middle East Following Israel-Iran Conflict
NATO Leaders Endorse Plan for Increased Defence Spending
U.S. Crude Oil Prices Drop Below $65 Amid Market Volatility
Explosions Rock Doha as Iranian Missiles Target Qatar
“You Have 12 Hours to Flee”: Israeli Threat Campaign Targets Surviving Iranian Officials
Oman Set to Introduce Personal Income Tax, First in Gulf
Germany and Italy Under Pressure to Repatriate $245bn of Gold from US Vaults
Iran Intensifies Crackdown on Alleged Mossad Operatives After Sabotage Claims
Trump Praises Iran’s ‘Very Weak’ Response After U.S. Strikes and Presses Israel to Pursue Peace
WATCH: Israeli forces show the aftermath of a massive airstrike at Iran's Isfahan nuclear site
We have new information and breaking details to share about what is shaping up to be a historic air campaign tonight
Six Massive Bombs Dropped on Fordow; Trump: 'A Historic Moment for the U.S., Israel, and the World'
Fordow: Deeply Buried Iranian Enrichment Site in U.S.–Israel Crosshairs
United States Conducts Precision Strikes on Iran’s Nuclear Sites
US strikes Iran nuclear sites, Trump says
Pakistan to nominate Trump for Nobel Peace Prize.
Israel Confirms Assassination of Quds Force Commander in Tehran
16 Billion Login Credentials Leaked in Unprecedented Cybersecurity Breach
Senate hearing on who was 'really running' Biden White House kicks off
×