Saudi Press

Saudi Arabia and the world
Monday, Jun 02, 2025

COVID-19: UK economy forecast to see strongest annual growth since 1941

COVID-19: UK economy forecast to see strongest annual growth since 1941

The predicted bounce-back will come after Britain suffered its biggest annual decline for three centuries last year.
The UK is on course for its strongest annual growth since the Second World War after a resilient performance through latest lockdowns, according to a respected economic forecaster.

Gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to expand by 6.8% this year, according to the EY ITEM Club - which would be the fastest pace since 1941.

Another forecast, from Goldman Sachs, predicts a "striking" growth rate of 7.8%, stronger than its expectation for the US, where Joe Biden's multi-trillion dollar stimulus effort is firing up recovery.

A bounce-back in 2021 already looked inevitable after UK GDP suffered a 9.8% slump in 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic crushed economic activity.

That was the biggest annual decline for three centuries and the worst performance among the G7 group of major advanced nations.

But the "innovative and flexible" response of UK businesses and consumers to the pandemic means forecasters are now upgrading how strong they think the bounce-back will be.

The EY ITEM Club had previously pencilled in 5% growth for this year - a figure previously matched in 1997 - with the performance held back by the impact of lockdowns in the early part of the year.

But it now estimates that the economy only shrank by just over 1% in the first quarter, not the 3-4% contraction previously feared.

The current April-June period alone is predicted to see growth of 4-5%, helped by the reopening of the economy and continued support from government spending and Bank of England policy.

The latest report from EY ITEM Club - which uses the Treasury model for the UK economy - also suggests that the economy will return to its pre-pandemic level by the second quarter of next year, three months earlier than previously predicted.

Howard Archer, chief economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club, said: "The UK economy has proven to be more resilient than seemed possible at the outset of the pandemic.

"Businesses and consumers have been innovative and flexible in adjusting to COVID-19 restrictions and, while restrictions have caused disruption, lessons learned over the last 12 months have helped minimise the economic impact.

"Our latest forecast suggests that the UK economy will emerge from the pandemic with much less long-term 'scarring' than was originally envisaged and looks set for a strong recovery over the rest of the year and beyond."

The International Monetary Fund currently predicts UK growth of 5.3% for 2021, with the Bank of England pencilling in 5% expansion and the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) just 4%.
Newsletter

Related Articles

Saudi Press
0:00
0:00
Close
Paris Saint-Germain's Greatest Triumph Is Football’s Lowest Point
OPEC+ Agrees to Increase Oil Output for Third Consecutive Month
Turkey Detains Istanbul Officials Amid Anti-Corruption Crackdown
Meta and Anduril Collaborate on AI-Driven Military Augmented Reality Systems
EU Central Bank Pushes to Replace US Dollar with Euro as World’s Main Currency
European and Arab Ministers Convene in Madrid to Address Gaza Conflict
U.S. Health Secretary Ends Select COVID-19 Vaccine Recommendations
Trump Warns Putin Is 'Playing with Fire' Amid Escalating Ukraine Conflict
India and Pakistan Engage Trump-Linked Lobbyists to Influence U.S. Policy
U.S. Halts New Student Visa Interviews Amid Enhanced Security Measures
Trump Administration Cancels $100 Million in Federal Contracts with Harvard
SpaceX Starship Test Flight Ends in Failure, Mars Mission Timeline Uncertain
King Charles Affirms Canadian Sovereignty Amid U.S. Statehood Pressure
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Founder Warns Against Trusting Regime in Nuclear Talks
UAE Offers Free ChatGPT Plus Subscriptions to Citizens
Lebanon Initiates Plan to Disarm Palestinian Factions
Iran and U.S. Make Limited Progress in Nuclear Talks
The Daily Debate: The Fall of the Dollar — Strategic Reset or Economic Self-Destruction?
Trump Administration's Tariff Policies and Dollar Strategy Spark Global Economic Debate
OpenAI Acquires Jony Ive’s Startup for $6.5 Billion to Build a Revolutionary “Third Core Device”
Turkey Weighs Citizens in Public as Erdoğan Launches National Slimming Campaign
Saudi-Spanish Business Forum Commences in Riyadh
Saudi Arabia and Spain Sign MoU to Boost SME Sectors
UK Suspends Trade Talks with Israel Amid Gaza Offensive
Iran and U.S. Set for Fifth Round of Nuclear Talks Amid Rising Tensions
Russia Expands Military Presence Near Finland Amid Rising Tensions
Indian Scholar Arrested in Crackdown Over Pakistan Conflict Commentary
Israel Eases Gaza Blockade Amid Internal Dispute Over Military Strategy
President Biden’s announcement of advanced prostate cancer sparked public sympathy—but behind closed doors, Democrats are in panic
A Chinese company made solar tiles that look way nicer than regular panels!
Indian jet shootdown: the all-robot legion behind China’s PL-15E missiles
The Chinese Dragon: The True Winner in the India-Pakistan Clash
Australia's Venomous Creatures Contribute to Life-Saving Antivenom Programme
The Spanish Were Right: Long Working Hours Harm Brain Function
Did Former FBI Director Call for Violence Against Trump? Instagram Post Sparks Uproar
US and UAE Partner to Develop Massive AI Data Center Complex
Apple's $95 Million Siri Settlement: Eligible Users Have Until July 2 to File Claims
US and UAE Reach Preliminary Agreement on Nvidia AI Chip Imports
President Trump and Elon Musk Welcomed by Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim with Cybertruck Convoy
Strong Warning Issued: Do Not Use General Chatbots for Medical, Legal, or Educational Guidance
Saudi Arabia Emerges as Global Tech Magnet with U.S. Backing and Trump’s Visit
This was President's departure from Saudi Arabia. The Crown Prince personally escorted him back to the airport.
NVIDIA and Saudi Arabia Launch Strategic Partnership to Establish AI Centers
Trump Meets Syrian President Ahmad al-Shara in Historic Encounter
Trump takes a blow torch to the neocons and interventionists while speaking to the Saudis
US and Saudi Arabia Sign Landmark Agreements Across Multiple Sectors
Why Saudi Arabia Rolled Out a Purple Carpet for Donald Trump Instead of Red
Elon Musk Joins Trump Meeting in Saudi Arabia
Trump says it would be 'stupid' not to accept gift of Qatari plane
Quantum Computing Threatens Bitcoin Security
×