Saudi Press

Saudi Arabia and the world
Wednesday, Feb 05, 2025

The Day After Assad: Can Syria Steer Clear of Libya's Pitfalls?

As Assad’s regime weakens, the Middle East prepares for either a return to stability or a plunge into disorder.
The impending downfall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria marks a pivotal moment for the Middle East, laden with both risks and opportunities.

Similarities with Libya's spiral into chaos following Muammar Qaddafi's fall highlight that Syria's destiny relies on whether regional and global powers can coordinate a successful post-Assad plan.

Without decisive and collaborative intervention, Syria is at risk of becoming another failed state—a fragmented battleground for uncontrolled militias and geopolitical conflicts.

Libya's disintegration serves as a stark cautionary tale.

After Qaddafi was removed, the lack of a coherent national structure resulted in governance voids, promoting terrorism and regional instability.

However, Syria's situation is more intricate.

Its tribal and ethnic divisions are intensified by higher geopolitical stakes.

The strategic significance of the Golan Heights makes Syria's outcome a crucial security issue for Israel.

While stability might seem ideal, it doesn’t always align with Israel's strategic interests.

A fragmented Syria could weaken Iran's influence, disrupting logistical support for Hezbollah—a strategic consideration Israel cannot overlook.

Regional powers also have a crucial role.

The United States, positioned at the strategic border triangle of Syria, Iraq, and Jordan, holds substantial influence.

Turkey, with its interest in limiting Kurdish autonomy, adds another layer to the complexity.

Could these changing dynamics open the door for new Israeli-Turkish collaboration?

Although such a partnership seems plausible, Turkey's priorities might differ, focusing on its internal issues over broader regional stability.

For Israel, securing the Golan Heights and ensuring demilitarization along its borders are vital.

Yet the challenge extends beyond territorial matters.

Preventing the deployment of advanced weaponry within Syria and cultivating influence with opposition groups will be essential to shaping a favorable environment post-Assad.

Simultaneously, removing Syria from the 'Axis of Resistance'—effectively breaking ties with Iran and Hezbollah—could shift the regional power balance for decades.

Achieving this necessitates a coordinated approach involving the United States, Israel, and other regional stakeholders.

The stakes are immense.

If Syria can avoid Libya's fate, it could set a model for successful post-conflict stabilization in the Middle East.

On the other hand, failure could drag the region deeper into instability.

The day following Assad's departure will redefine not just Syria but also the strategic landscape of the entire region.

The world is watching—will global and regional players rise to the occasion, or will chaos repeat itself in history?
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