Saudi Press

Saudi Arabia and the world
Monday, Jan 26, 2026

If Russia wants to evade sanctions, it could learn from Iran's playbook

If Russia wants to evade sanctions, it could learn from Iran's playbook

As Russia faces unprecedented sanctions on virtually all sectors of its economy, it may have to turn to a trusted ally with more than four decades of experience with Western embargoes.

Until the Ukraine war, Iran was the most sanctioned country in the world, according to Castellum.Ai, which tracks sanctions. Russia now holds that record and the two countries are in what analysts call "a marriage of convenience" that is likely to grow stronger as the war in Ukraine escalates.

"Common interests in helping the other evade sanctions are important to these dynamics in Russia-Iran relations," said Giorgio Cafiero, CEO of Gulf State Analytics in Washington DC.

Amid tit-for-tat air blockades between Moscow and the West last month, Russian transport minister Vitaly Savelyev said his country is "studying the case of Iran" to help it deal with sanctions on maintenance and spare parts. Iran still operates some planes purchased before the 1979 Islamic Revolution that ruptured its ties with the West.

"This bilateral relationship will likely grow stronger as the war in Ukraine rages on, especially if the Vienna talks fail to revive the JCPOA," Cafiero added, referring to the 2015 deal that put verifiable limits on Iran's nuclear program designed to prevent the country from obtaining a nuclear weapon. He noted that Iran's isolation will further push Tehran to make itself useful to the Kremlin.

After decades of Western economic constraints, the Islamic Republic has become a master of evasion, using illicit markets and manipulating vessel-tracking to circumvent sanctions. Today, Russia is living a similar crisis as the West clamps down on Moscow in an effort to cripple its war effort.

Can Russia follow Iran's lead to circumvent Western sanctions? Some analysts say it already is.

The US, the G7 group of rich nations, and the European Union have imposed a series of unprecedented sanctions on Russia since its invasion of Ukraine on February 24.

The largest blow, however, would be to Russian energy, which by 2020 made up more than half of Russia's exports. The US and Britain have already banned Russian oil. Today, the EU -- which remains highly dependent on Russia's supply -- is considering a similar move, but is yet to reach consensus on the matter.

One way Russia can learn to survive potential sanctions on its oil is to shift vessels and rebrand its blend, a tactic that has been used by Iran.

Iran has in the past hidden millions of oil barrels off little-known ports in Asia to escape Western sanctions, Reuters reported in 2012. Barrel transfers in the dead of night from one vessel to another allowed Iran to masquerade under different flags, selling its oil to keen Asian buyers without catching the eye of Western monitors. Iran didn't respond to a request for comment, Reuters added.

"About 8% of the world's largest tankers are now engaged in the smuggling of sanctioned oil, largely comprising Iranian and Venezuelan product," said Cormac Mc Garry, security expert at Control Risks in London.

"Ghosting" is the most commonly used mechanism, Mc Garry told CNN, whereby ships turn off their automatic identification systems as they switch cargo from one vessel to another.

"The trick here is that the second tanker may look completely compliant [with sanctions], and the trader or consumer can be duped into thinking they have purchased an unsanctioned cargo," said Mc Garry.


Windward, an Israeli maritime intelligence company, said that over the past month it identified Russian crude trading under the radar, where there were ship-to-ship operations between oil tankers departing from Russian ports with other oil tankers. Tankers engaged in this activity arrived in North America, Asia, Russia and Europe, according to Windward.

"While the new restrictions are changing vessel behaviors ... it seems like some companies are maintaining business as usual, by concealing their actions and trying to keep regulatory bodies ... in the dark," wrote Windward in a blog post.

In Iran's case, remote Malaysian territories were used as "blending" or "re-branding" spots, where Iranian oil would be mixed with others and sold as a non-Iranian product to international buyers. "Malaysian blends" have been a known gateway to evading oil sanctions, with Asian buyers -- specifically Chinese -- making use of the rebranded mix to purchase sanctioned oil.

Russia is already taking a similar route, its oil now rebranded as "Latvian blend" -- a 49.99%-Russian mix that is blended with other oil and labelled Latvian. The crude has been bought by UK-based oil and gas company Shell, Bloomberg reported.

Dealing with sanctioned oil risks both reputational and financial damage, but demand for crude could still drive some buyers to the deep ends of black markets, analysts say.

"Commodities markets are already being squeezed due to supply concerns and so it is not clear that Russian supplies can be replaced," said Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, founder and CEO of the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation think tank in London.

Financially, Iran has built a shadowy network that uses front companies and circuitous transactions to launder money and dodge sanctions, analysts say, which some believe may be offered for Russian use.

Those companies are used to give the appearance that there is no Iran connection, said Richard Nephew, a scholar at Columbia's Center on Global Energy Policy in New York who previously serves as deputy sanctions chief at the State Department and director of Iranian Affairs at the US National Security Council.

Front companies are a tactic that Nephew believes Russia would be keen to learn from.

"I think that Iran would be prepared to help Russia with respect to some sanctions evasion tools," said Nephew, "but of course, this assumes that Iran itself has access that it can make readily available."

Sanction evasion is not an easy task, said Batmanghelidj. And while finding complicit partners delays economic collapse in the short-term, it still cuts the chances of long-term profit.

"The main lesson that Russian should draw from Iran's experience is that evading sanctions and resisting sanctions is hard," said Batmanghelidj. "At best, Russia can aim to demonstrate resilience to sanctions, but that just means staving a runaway economic collapse," he told CNN.

"This is why the real cost of sanctions is an opportunity cost of forgone growth."

Newsletter

Related Articles

Saudi Press
0:00
0:00
Close
Trump Defends Saudi Crown Prince in Heated Exchange After Reporter Questions Khashoggi Murder and 9/11 Links
Saudi Stocks Rally as Kingdom Prepares to Fully Open Capital Market to Global Investors
Air France and KLM Suspend Multiple Middle East Routes as Regional Tensions Disrupt Aviation
Saudi Arabia scales back Neom as The Line is redesigned and Trojena downsized
Saudi Industrial Group Completes One Point Three Billion Dollar Acquisition of South Africa’s Barloworld
Saudi-Backed LIV Golf Confirms Return to Trump National Bedminster for 2026 Season
Gold Jumps More Than 8% in a Week as the Dollar Slides Amid Greenland Tariff Dispute
Boston Dynamics Atlas humanoid robot and LG CLOiD home robot: the platform lock-in fight to control Physical AI
United States under President Donald Trump completes withdrawal from the World Health Organization: health sovereignty versus global outbreak early-warning access
Trump Administration’s Iran Military Buildup and Sanctions Campaign Puts Deterrence Credibility on the Line
Tech Brief: AI Compute, Chips, and Platform Power Moves Driving Today’s Market Narrative
NATO’s Stress Test Under Trump: Alliance Credibility, Burden-Sharing, and the Fight Over Strategic Territory
Saudi Arabia’s Careful Balancing Act in Relations with Israel Amid Regional and Domestic Pressures
Greenland, Gaza, and Global Leverage: Today’s 10 Power Stories Shaping Markets and Security
America’s Venezuela Oil Grip Meets China’s Demand: Market Power, Legal Shockwaves, and the New Rules of Energy Leverage
Trump’s Board of Peace: Breakthrough Diplomacy or a Hostile Takeover of Global Order?
Prince William to Make Official Visit to Saudi Arabia in February
Saudi Arabia Advances Ambitious Artificial River Mega-Project to Transform Water Security
Saudi Crown Prince and Syrian President Discuss Stabilisation, Reconstruction and Regional Ties in Riyadh Talks
Mohammed bin Salman Confronts the ‘Iranian Moment’ as Saudi Leadership Faces Regional Test
Cybercrime, Inc.: When Crime Becomes an Economy. How the World Accidentally Built a Twenty-Trillion-Dollar Criminal Economy
Strategic Restraint, Credible Force, and the Discipline of Power
Donald Trump Organization Unveils Championship Golf Course and Luxury Resort Project in Saudi Arabia
Inside Diriyah: Saudi Arabia’s $63.2 Billion Vision to Transform Its Historic Heart into a Global Tourism Powerhouse
Trump Designates Saudi Arabia a Major Non-NATO Ally, Elevating US–Riyadh Defense Partnership
Trump Organization Deepens Saudi Property Focus with $10 Billion Luxury Developments
There is no sovereign immunity for poisoning millions with drugs.
Mohammed bin Salman’s Global Standing: Strategic Partner in Transition Amid Debate Over His Role
Saudi Arabia Opens Property Market to Foreign Buyers in Landmark Reform
The U.S. State Department’s account in Persian: “President Trump is a man of action. If you didn’t know it until now, now you do—do not play games with President Trump.”
CNN’s Ranking of Israel’s Women’s Rights Sparks Debate After Misleading Global Index Comparison
Saudi Arabia’s Shifting Regional Alignment Raises Strategic Concerns in Jerusalem
OPEC+ Holds Oil Output Steady Amid Member Tensions and Market Oversupply
Iranian Protests Intensify as Another Revolutionary Guard Member Is Killed and Khamenei Blames the West
President Trump Says United States Will Administer Venezuela Until a Secure Leadership Transition
Delta Force Identified as Unit Behind U.S. Operation That Captured Venezuela’s President
Trump Announces U.S. Large-Scale Strike on Venezuela, Declares President Maduro and Wife Captured
Saudi-UAE Rift Adds Complexity to Middle East Diplomacy as Trump Signals Firm Leadership
OPEC+ to Keep Oil Output Policy Unchanged Despite Saudi-UAE Tensions Over Yemen
Saudi Arabia and UAE at Odds in Yemen Conflict as Southern Offensive Deepens Gulf Rift
Abu Dhabi ‘Capital of Capital’: How Abu Dhabi Rose as a Sovereign Wealth Power
Diamonds Are Powering a New Quantum Revolution
Trump Threatens Strikes Against Iran if Nuclear Programme Is Restarted
Why Saudi Arabia May Recalibrate Its US Spending Commitments Amid Rising China–America Rivalry
Riyadh Air’s First Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner Completes Initial Test Flight, Advancing Saudi Carrier’s Launch
Saudi Arabia’s 2025: A Pivotal Year of Global Engagement and Domestic Transformation
Saudi Arabia to Introduce Sugar-Content Based Tax on Sweetened Drinks from January 2026
Saudi Hotels Prepare for New Hospitality Roles as Alcohol Curbs Ease
Global Airports Forum Highlights Saudi Arabia’s Emergence as a Leading Aviation Powerhouse
Saudi Arabia Weighs Strategic Choice on Iran Amid Regional Turbulence
×