Saudi Press

Saudi Arabia and the world
Saturday, May 30, 2026

How Silicon Valley Bank chaos has had a bearing on us all - and why we're in for a bumpy few months

How Silicon Valley Bank chaos has had a bearing on us all - and why we're in for a bumpy few months

If inflation does stay a lot higher than the central banks expect, then we could be in for a more turbulent time. And how worried should we be about that? The next few months will tell, but for the time being there's good and bad news.
Tempting as it is to believe that the chaos with Silicon Valley Bank and its British arm are of interest only to members of the tech community and financial nerds, it has already had a very real bearing on all our lives.

For evidence, look no further than the money markets, where investors bet on the future path of interest rates.

Up until last Friday, they were expecting UK interest rates to peak at around 4.75% - possibly even a little bit higher.

But the shock of the bank collapse caused a sudden reappraisal. By Monday evening, they were pricing in a peak of only 4.25% - a very big fall by the scheme of these things. It was a similar story in the US, where the expected peak for rates dropped by around half a percentage point.

Why are these two stories - interest rates and an obscure bank collapse - colliding?

In large part it's because they were always intertwined - not that anyone paid much attention before last week.

Part of the reason Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) suffered its demise was because over the past 18 months rising interest rates had caused a sharp fall in the value of bonds held by the bank.

It was, in large part, those losses and the impact on SVB's balance sheet that prompted depositors to run from the bank late last week (which in turn triggered the UK branch's collapse).

In other words, one of the consequences of SVB's implosion is that the Federal Reserve and Bank of England might become a little more wary of raising interest rates in future.

Everyone knew there were unexploded bombs in the financial system which would begin to explode when money got more expensive; the fear now is that there may be more explosions to come.

This isn't the only explanation for why rate expectations have come down. There's also the fact that the chaos at SVB, Signature bank (which also failed) and across much of the US banking system might dampen economic growth or even precipitate a recession.

And, for the most part, central banks tend to cut rates rather than raise them in the face of a recession. And we were already getting close to the potential peak in borrowing costs.

Even so, this interplay between an extremely nervous financial system and interest rates is a big part of the story.

Which brings us to some of the consequences.

'Things could get pretty gritty'

Let's assume the Fed and the Bank of England are indeed going to allow interest rates to peak at a lower rate than previously expected.

Does that mean that we have to expect higher inflation in future? What if inflation turns out to be considerably more sticky than most central banks expect (they mostly think it'll come down pretty quickly)?

The short answer is that things could get pretty gritty: the Bank of England is duty bound to try to keep inflation low and to try to keep the financial system stable, but among the many things illustrated by the SVB episode is that those two objectives can sometimes clash with each other.

In this case, higher interest rates (to fight inflation) contributed to financial instability. Yes, there was lots else going on besides - there's a strong case to say the Fed wasn't doing enough to monitor the risk posed by unusual banks like SVB - but the rising cost of money is a big part of the story.

There's good news and bad news

If inflation does stay a lot higher than the central banks expect, then we could be in for a more turbulent time.

And how worried should we be about that? The next few months will tell, but for the time being there's good and bad news.

The good is that the headline consumer price index in both the UK and US seems to have been faring more or less as the central banks expected - gradually coming down. Earlier today, the US CPI came in at an annual rate of 6% - bang in line with expectations.

The bad news is that when you look beneath the surface, there are some hints that inflation could prove more stubborn than expected.

In particular, core inflation - the behaviour of prices once you strip out volatile items like energy and food - is still building, especially when you ignore housing costs. That suggests there's still upwards pressure on prices.

And sure enough, immediately after the release of those numbers, interest rate expectations rose a little, both in the UK and US.

Now, UK rates are expected to peak not at 4.25% but 4.4% (which in practical terms means a fair few people - though not everyone - expect 4.5% rates).

In short, we're in for a bumpy few months.
Newsletter

Related Articles

Saudi Press
0:00
0:00
Close
Japanese Technology Firm Fujitsu Launches Advanced Artificial Intelligence Tool for Corporate Disclosures
South Africa Officially Launches Nationwide Campaign for Highly Contested Local Government Elections
United Kingdom Commits Additional Funding for Unexploded Ordnance Clearance in Laos
Singapore Announces Stringent New Greenhouse Gas Regulations for Commercial Cooling Systems
Cambodia and Thailand Hold High-Level Border Security Talks at United Nations Headquarters
Myanmar Military Government and China Sign Major Agreement to Upgrade Media and Cultural Cooperation
Knife Attack at Swiss Train Station Leaves Three Injured in Suspected Act of Domestic Terrorism
Transnational Extortion Gang Threatens Canadian Police With Army of One Thousand Armed Operatives
Australia Imposes Forty-Two-Day Quarantine on Cruise Ship Passengers Following Deadly Hantavirus Outbreak
International Monetary Fund Unlocks Seven Hundred Million United States Dollars for Sri Lanka Following Economic Reforms
Australia Launches Record One Point Four Billion Dollar Lawsuit Against Chemical Giant 3M Over Contamination
China and Canada Foreign Ministers Meet in Ottawa in Effort to Stabilize Strained Diplomatic Ties
Indonesia Demands Urgent United Nations Security Council Reform Amid Escalating Global Conflicts
Extreme Weather Patterns Trigger Severe Drought in Madagascar and Destructive Flooding in East Africa
Indian State of Karnataka Faces Political Upheaval as Chief Minister Siddaramaiah Abruptly Resigns
Philippines and Japan Reaffirm Defense Ties as Crucial for Indo-Pacific Regional Stability
Norway Joins French Nuclear Deterrence Initiative in Major Shift for European Security Architecture
Global Critical Mineral Alliances Expand as Western Nations Move to Counter Chinese Supply Dominance
United States Imposes Fifty Percent Tariffs on Mexican Steel and Aluminum Ahead of Trade Pact Review
European Union and China Head Toward Major Trade Conflict Over Clean Technology Exports
United States Economic Growth Severely Downgraded to One Point Six Percent as Stagflation Fears Mount
World Health Organization Warns Central African Ebola Epidemic is Outpacing Containment Efforts
United States Treasury Department Conditions Sanctions Relief on Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
Iranian Air Defenses Intercept and Destroy United States Military Drone Over Bushehr Province
Iranian Armed Forces Launch Ballistic Missiles Toward Unspecified Targets Prompting Regional Condemnation
United Nations Secretary-General Warns Global Order Facing Highest Level of Conflict Since 1945
Israel Issues Sweeping Evacuation Orders in Southern Lebanon Amid Intensified Hezbollah Conflict
Russia Announces Systemic Military Strikes Targeting Ukrainian Defense and Energy Infrastructure
United States and Iranian Negotiators Reach Draft Agreement to Extend Ceasefire and Resume Nuclear Talks
United Nations Security Council Deeply Divided Over United States Capture of Venezuelan President
US and Iran Exchange Direct Military Strikes Amid Fragile Gulf Ceasefire
World Health Organization Warns of Catastrophic Ebola Outbreak in DR Congo
Russia Threatens New Wave of Strikes on Ukrainian Infrastructure and Embassies
Scientists Warn Atlantic Ocean Currents Could Collapse Faster Than Projected
Anthropic Reaches $900 Billion Valuation in Historic AI Funding Round
Washington Imposes Crippling Sanctions on Iranian Maritime Authority
Japan and the Philippines Initiate Strategic Intelligence-Sharing Pact
Microsoft Deploys Autonomous Computer-Using AI Agents to Global Markets
Anthropic Secures $45 Billion Compute Infrastructure Agreement With SpaceX
U.S. Director of National Intelligence Resigns Amid Administration Shakeup
Micron Technology Crosses Trillion-Dollar Valuation Amid Unprecedented Hardware Demand
Canada and Germany Finalize Historic Long-Term LNG Export Agreement
China Expands International Travel Restrictions on Domestic AI Researchers
Japan Approves Sweeping Overhaul of National Intelligence Apparatus
Global Airlines Scramble Logistics as Middle East Airspace Remains Fractured
Japan's Naphtha Imports Plunge 47 Percent Amid Strait of Hormuz Closure
Global Crude Prices Retreat Below $96 as Gulf Tensions Momentarily Ease
Generative AI Outperforms Human Baselines in Landmark Global Creativity Study
NASA Partners With Private Aerospace to Unveil Permanent Lunar Base Architecture
South Korean Equity Markets Surge on Next-Generation Memory Chip Frenzy
×