GCC Economic Growth Set to Accelerate to 4.3% by 2027: Official Data
Economic diversification and non-oil sector expansion drive growth projections amid global uncertainties.
JEDDAH: The Gulf Cooperation Council's (GCC) economic growth is expected to accelerate to 4.3 percent by 2027, driven primarily by the expanding non-oil sectors, following a balanced 1.9 percent increase in gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024, as per official data from the GCC Statistical Centre.The progress of economic diversification and the implementation of long-term transformation strategies across the region are reflected in the 4.4 percent growth in non-oil sectors in 2024.
The World Bank's June 2025 Gulf Economic Update projects a real GDP growth rate of 3.2 percent for the GCC in 2025, supported by both oil output growth at 2.8 percent and non-oil activity at 3.2 percent.
This growth is expected to average around 4.6 percent in 2026 and 2027.The report notes that individual countries will benefit from resumed oil production and robust non-oil performance, with Saudi Arabia's oil output projected to reach 10.4 million barrels per day by 2027.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is expected to see its non-oil sector expand by 4.9 percent in 2025, while Qatar is forecasted to record significant gains from expanding liquefied natural gas capacity.The report also highlights the growing role of non-oil industries and the GCC's continued diversification momentum despite global uncertainties.
The region achieved a balanced performance in 2024 despite global challenges, as per a recent GCC-Stat report titled "Economic Performance Outlook 2024 – Enabling Fiscal Sustainability and Enhancing Non-Oil Growth".
This report provides an analytical overview of macroeconomic indicators, covering growth, inflation, public finance, debt levels, fiscal sustainability, financial markets, monetary and banking policy, foreign direct investment, trade, and labor market dynamics across the Gulf.Preliminary GCCStat data showed that transport and storage led non-oil growth in 2024 with a 6.5 percent increase, followed by agriculture and fishing at 6.4 percent and accommodation services at 6.3 percent, reflecting rising tourism flows and growing investment in these sectors.
Construction, trade, and financial services expanded between 5 to 5.5 percent, supported by large-scale projects and stronger domestic demand.
In contrast, the oil sector contracted by 3.8 percent due to OPEC+ output reduction commitments.The value added of non-oil activities rose to $1.29 trillion in 2024, up from $1.24 trillion in 2023, underscoring tangible progress in diversification.
Looking ahead, GCC-Stat forecasts non-oil growth to moderate to 3.5 percent in 2025 before accelerating to 5.2 percent by 2027, driven by tourism, logistics, manufacturing, and renewable energy projects.In the first quarter of 2025, GCC economies expanded by 3 percent, with combined GDP reaching $588.1 billion, up from $570.9 billion in the same period last year.
Non-oil activities accounted for 73.2 percent of total GDP, up from 70.6 percent at the end of 2024, highlighting the region's continued progress toward diversification.Saudi Arabia projects real GDP growth of 4.6 percent in 2026, supported by an estimated 5 percent increase in non-oil activities.
The UAE recorded 3.9 percent growth in the first quarter, led by trade, finance, manufacturing, construction, and real estate.
These results reinforce the GCC's resilient growth trajectory amid global uncertainties and align with IMF forecasts projecting 3.2 percent growth in 2025 and 4.5 percent in 2026.
The World Bank's June 2025 Gulf Economic Update projects a real GDP growth rate of 3.2 percent for the GCC in 2025, supported by both oil output growth at 2.8 percent and non-oil activity at 3.2 percent.
This growth is expected to average around 4.6 percent in 2026 and 2027.The report notes that individual countries will benefit from resumed oil production and robust non-oil performance, with Saudi Arabia's oil output projected to reach 10.4 million barrels per day by 2027.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is expected to see its non-oil sector expand by 4.9 percent in 2025, while Qatar is forecasted to record significant gains from expanding liquefied natural gas capacity.The report also highlights the growing role of non-oil industries and the GCC's continued diversification momentum despite global uncertainties.
The region achieved a balanced performance in 2024 despite global challenges, as per a recent GCC-Stat report titled "Economic Performance Outlook 2024 – Enabling Fiscal Sustainability and Enhancing Non-Oil Growth".
This report provides an analytical overview of macroeconomic indicators, covering growth, inflation, public finance, debt levels, fiscal sustainability, financial markets, monetary and banking policy, foreign direct investment, trade, and labor market dynamics across the Gulf.Preliminary GCCStat data showed that transport and storage led non-oil growth in 2024 with a 6.5 percent increase, followed by agriculture and fishing at 6.4 percent and accommodation services at 6.3 percent, reflecting rising tourism flows and growing investment in these sectors.
Construction, trade, and financial services expanded between 5 to 5.5 percent, supported by large-scale projects and stronger domestic demand.
In contrast, the oil sector contracted by 3.8 percent due to OPEC+ output reduction commitments.The value added of non-oil activities rose to $1.29 trillion in 2024, up from $1.24 trillion in 2023, underscoring tangible progress in diversification.
Looking ahead, GCC-Stat forecasts non-oil growth to moderate to 3.5 percent in 2025 before accelerating to 5.2 percent by 2027, driven by tourism, logistics, manufacturing, and renewable energy projects.In the first quarter of 2025, GCC economies expanded by 3 percent, with combined GDP reaching $588.1 billion, up from $570.9 billion in the same period last year.
Non-oil activities accounted for 73.2 percent of total GDP, up from 70.6 percent at the end of 2024, highlighting the region's continued progress toward diversification.Saudi Arabia projects real GDP growth of 4.6 percent in 2026, supported by an estimated 5 percent increase in non-oil activities.
The UAE recorded 3.9 percent growth in the first quarter, led by trade, finance, manufacturing, construction, and real estate.
These results reinforce the GCC's resilient growth trajectory amid global uncertainties and align with IMF forecasts projecting 3.2 percent growth in 2025 and 4.5 percent in 2026.
