S&P Global: Saudi Arabia's $86 Billion Renewable Energy Transition to Cut Annual Electricity Costs by $30 Billion by 2030
Saudi Arabia aims to increase renewable energy to 50% of its electricity production by 2030 and achieve net zero emissions by 2060, according to Sofia Bensaid, Director of Infrastructure and Project Finance Ratings at S&P Global.
This transition could save the country $30 billion in annual electricity costs by 2030.
However, achieving this goal requires adding over 20 gigawatts of renewables annually until 2030, totaling 130 GW in six years.
The estimated cost for this rebuilding agenda is $86 billion, which developers will finance, not the government.
Bensaid expressed concerns about the implementation of this ambitious plan.
The text discusses two key points from a panel at an energy conference.
First, a speaker mentioned that once Saudi Arabia reaches a renewable energy capacity of 130 GW, the country's annual electricity bill is expected to decrease by approximately $30 billion.
Second, the Director of Corporate Ratings at S&P Global, Rawan Oueidat, shared that national oil companies in the region will continue to have high capital expenditures, estimated to be around $110-$115 billion annually, but recent capacity expansion pauses may impact cash flow visibility for oilfield service companies, potentially leading to higher credit metrics.
Additionally, the panel highlighted Saudi Arabia's focus on non-oil divisions and renewable energy initiatives.
The text discusses the growth of non-oil sectors in Saudi Arabia, which is expected to continue below 5 percent despite government investments.
Sectors like tourism, consumer products, healthcare, and telecom are thriving due to demographic trends and favorable oil prices.
Public investments and mega trends in Saudi Arabia, such as population growth, are supporting these sectors.
Consumer-driven sectors are particularly successful due to growing consumer spending and limited inflation levels.
S&P Global has relatively favorable expectations for these sectors, with the oil price also contributing to their growth.
Saudi Arabia's economy is experiencing positive growth in various sectors, particularly consumer-driven industries like healthcare and telecom.
The healthcare sector is benefiting from population growth and mandatory insurance requirements.
The telecom sector is performing well due to investments in 5G infrastructure and digital non-token businesses.
Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 plan aims for substantial social and economic transformation.
The text discusses the anticipated trillion-dollar cost of various large-scale projects under Saudi Arabia's vision, with approximately $250 billion in debt issuances expected from 2024 to 2030, amounting to around $35 billion annually.
Despite this significant debt, Saudi Arabia is projected to maintain a net asset position of around 47% of GDP by 2027 and 30% by 2030.
The text discusses the Saudi Arabian government's implementation of Vision 2030 with support from the Public Investment Fund (PIF).
S&P Global forecasts that the government's assets will remain strong due to economic diversification efforts, but increasing debt issuance for Vision 2030 projects may put pressure on the Kingdom's net asset position until the end of the decade.
However, Saudi Arabia is expected to mitigate this impact through prudent fiscal policies.
In summary, the government will only partially implement Vision 2030, with contributions from the private sector and foreign investors.
S&P Global predicts that the government's assets will remain strong despite the pressure from debt issuance.
The text discusses the potential financial implications of Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 plan, which involves increasing fiscal deficits and debt to fund large-scale projects.
The US-based firm warns that the government's balance sheet could weaken before returns on investment are realized.
The success of the plan will depend on foreign investment, the private sector, and capital markets to finance the projects.
The Saudi government will continue to support the Public Investment Fund (PIF) by funding essential infrastructure for mega and giga-project sites.