Saudi Press

Saudi Arabia and the world
Wednesday, Apr 01, 2026

Why it's time to think differently about Covid

Why it's time to think differently about Covid

For more than a year, personal freedoms have been curtailed to keep Covid at bay.

That looks likely to change, with ministers proposing to lift many of the remaining restrictions in England on 19 July. The details, set out on Monday, have sparked intense debate.

Prof Neil Ferguson, from Imperial College London, whose modelling led to the first lockdown, has said it is a gamble, but one worth taking.

What is unarguable is that the nature of the pandemic in the UK has changed - and with it so should many of our assumptions.

Covid no longer the deadly virus it was


The rollout of the vaccination programme has altered everything, reducing both the individual risk and the wider one to the health system.

Back in January, about one in 10 infections could be expected to translate into a hospital admission 10 days later. Now that figure appears to be somewhere between one in 40 and one in 50.



What is more, those ending up in hospital seem to be less sick, and need less intensive treatment.

The risk of death, as a result, has reduced even further. In January about one in 60 cases resulted in someone dying. Today it's fewer than one in 1,000.

Third wave will still be big


But this does not mean England - and the rest of the UK for that matter - is not heading for a significant third wave.

As the charts above show, infection rates are rising. If they rise enough, that has the potential to cause a significant number of hospitalisations, possibly 1,000 a day before summer is out.

Many may wonder how this can happen given how effective the vaccines are.

Individually, those who have had two doses are at a very tiny risk of getting seriously ill, but with infection rates high it means many people are taking that tiny risk at the same time. Add to that those who are unvaccinated or for whom the vaccines do not work as well and you can get a lot of admissions to hospital.


But serious illness happens all the time. In the depths of winter there can be 1,000 admissions a day for respiratory infections.

Flu alone killed more than 20,000 people in England in the winter of 2017-18. There was no talk of the need to introduce restrictions or curtail freedoms then.

"That is the context we need to start seeing Covid in," says Prof Robert Dingwall, a sociologist at Nottingham Trent University.

The difficult trade-offs


But why even take the risk? Why not - as scientists on Independent Sage have suggested -wait until the adult vaccination rollout is complete in September?

There was always going to be an "exit wave" once restrictions were lifted. And government scientists are hopeful the wall of immunity built up by natural infection and the vaccine rollout so far will soon kick in and flatten the wave.

The fact remains interventions are not harm-free, so in the end it comes down to difficult judgements about trade-offs.

As the virus presents less of a risk, that in turn shifts the balance on what can be considered proportionate.


Perhaps the clearest example of this is what is happening with schools where there are currently more than 500,000 children at home self-isolating in England because they were deemed to have close contact with an infected person at school.

That's 20 children out of school for every positive case.

This approach started in September, before vaccines had even completed their clinical trials. The idea was to contain spread of the virus to protect vulnerable adults - children are at incredibly low risk from Covid.

Now that all over-50s have had the chance of a second jab - these are the age groups where 99% of Covid deaths have occurred - the benefits of quarantining children like this is hugely reduced, while the costs in terms of disruption to education are clear to see.

Ministers say they will change this approach in time for September, but should this have been avoided given how much school has been disrupted already?

'Covid will never go away'


There are other arguments for why it should be now.

"Covid will never go away," says Prof Paul Hunter, from the University of East Anglia. "It's inevitable that we're going to catch it repeatedly for the rest of our lives, whether we have had the vaccine or not.


"The issues becomes not whether it is safe to lift all restrictions, but when would it be safest to do so."

Waiting any longer could make the situation worse, he believes, extending the exit wave into the autumn when schools are back and the flu season is getting under way.

It was a view echoed by England's chief medical officer Prof Chris Whitty, who said it had his personal backing when the government unveiled its plans on Monday.

The eyes of the world will be on us


But the idea of letting a virus spread when we have spent so long trying to do the opposite requires a psychological shift.

Dr Muge Cevik, an infectious disease expert at University of St Andrews, says this will take time.

"We need to accept Covid is here. We won't be able to completely stop the spread. We are now at the stage of managing the virus."

She would like to see more emphasis now on recovery, tackling the backlog in hospital care for non-Covid treatments, dealing with the economic fallout and loss of jobs and the emotional and mental health toll the pandemic has had.

But none of this is without risks. What if infection rates keep rising and that wall of immunity is slow to kick in?

Understandable concerns have also been raised about those who are at risk because they have conditions such as blood cancer which mean the vaccines do not work as well or who have a higher chance of exposure because of their jobs, such as shop or factory workers.

There is also Long Covid to contend with - although the risks of this are far from fully understood.

We are, perhaps, the first country to find ourselves in this situation, where we are attempting to return to normal in the face of a rapidly rising rate of infection and a more infectious variant, Delta.

Others will soon face similar dilemmas. It's why the world will be watching what happens on these shores.

Newsletter

Related Articles

Saudi Press
0:00
0:00
Close
Saudi Arabia Updates Travel Advisory as Regional Conflict Intensifies
Saudi Arabia’s Sadara Suspends Petrochemical Production as Conflict Disrupts Operations
Iran Urges Saudi Arabia to Remove US Forces Amid Escalating Regional Tensions
Gulf Allies Urge Trump to Sustain Campaign Until Iran Is Fully Defeated
Saudi Arabia Unveils Strategic Rail Freight Corridors Connecting Gulf Ports to Jordan
Saudi Arabia Intercepts Drones and Ballistic Missiles in Major Defensive Operation
Houthi Escalation Opens New Front in Expanding Iran-Linked Conflict
Major Saudi Chemical Plant Halts Operations Amid Regional Conflict Disruptions
Strike on US Radar Aircraft in Saudi Arabia Signals Escalating Threat Capabilities
US Citizens in Saudi Arabia Advised to Shelter Indoors Amid Rising Regional Tensions
How Britain’s Prime Minister Controls U.S. Bomber Access in Escalating Iran Conflict
Saudi Arabia Urges Trump to Lead Strategic Reset in Middle East as UAE Weighs Ground Role
Reed Smith Expands Saudi Presence with Senior Corporate Appointments
Trump Announces Approval of F-35 Fighter Jet Sale to Saudi Arabia
BBC Faces Scrutiny Over Allegations of Paid Content Linked to Saudi Arabia
Ukraine Secures Defense Agreements with Qatar and Saudi Arabia as UAE Talks Advance
Oil Prices Surge as Saudi Arabia Adjusts Supply Amid Escalating Iran Tensions
Saudi Arabia Condemns Attacks on Kurdistan Leaders and Reaffirms Backing for Iraq’s Stability
Saudi Arabia Weighs Strategic Interests as Iran Conflict Raises Regional Stakes
Severe Thunderstorms Sweep Across UAE and Saudi Arabia Bringing Heavy Rainfall
Trump’s Strategic Alignment with Saudi Arabia Reflects Expanding Economic and Diplomatic Synergy
Saudi Arabia Strongly Condemns Attacks on Presidential Residences in Hawler
Saudi Stocks Edge Lower as Tadawul Index Closes Slightly Down
Houthis Enter Expanding Iran Conflict as US Deploys Additional Troops
Iran Seeks Assurances for Regional Allies as Saudi Arabia Presses for Firm Security Guarantees
Iranian Strike Reportedly Destroys $270 Million US E-3 Sentry Aircraft at Saudi Air Base
Iranian Strike on Saudi Base Leaves Ten American Personnel Injured
Ukraine Claims Russia Shared Satellite Intelligence with Iran Ahead of Saudi Base Strike
Pakistan Engages Regional Powers in Diplomatic Talks Over Iran Conflict
Escalating Iran Conflict Brings Renewed Focus to US Military Presence in Saudi Arabia
Iranian Strike Targets Saudi Airbase, Damaging Key US Military Assets
Modi and Saudi Crown Prince Emphasise Secure Shipping Routes in Talks on West Asia Conflict
Dallas-Based Company Secures One Billion Dollar Hotel Development Deal in Saudi Arabia
Zelensky Secures Defence Cooperation Deals with Gulf States During Strategic Regional Tour
Trump Calls on Saudi Arabia to Join Abraham Accords in Push for Expanded Middle East Cooperation
Trump Balances Humor and Praise in Remarks on Saudi Crown Prince
Saudi Arabia’s Strategic Pipeline Reaches Seven Million Barrel Capacity to Bypass Hormuz
Rubio Signals U.S. Could Conclude Iran Conflict Within Weeks as Air Campaign Intensifies
More Than a Dozen U.S. Soldiers Injured in Saudi Base Attack as Iran-Backed Houthis Expand Conflict
Iranian Strike on US Base in Saudi Arabia Injures Troops and Damages Aircraft
Pakistan to Convene Regional Talks with Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt Amid Iran War Diplomacy
Ukraine and Saudi Arabia Reach ‘Mutually Beneficial’ Defence Agreement
Ukraine to Share Battlefield Expertise with Saudi Arabia Under New Defence Agreement
Trump Takes Center Stage at Saudi Arabia’s FII Miami Amid Escalating Iran Conflict
Gulf States Explore Pipeline Routes to Bypass Strait of Hormuz Amid Rising Tensions
Iran Conflict Drives Saudi Arabia to Deepen Security Ties with Ukraine
Saudi Arabia Reviews Desert Ski Resort Plans with Cancellation of Key Building Contracts
Saudi Arabia Targets Business Hotel Shortfall with $1 Billion Development Push
Iran and Allied Forces Intensify Strikes on Energy Sites and Urban Areas Across Region
Ukraine and Saudi Arabia Formalise Defence Cooperation Agreement, Zelenskiy Announces
×