Saudi Press

Saudi Arabia and the world
Friday, Aug 22, 2025

What history tells you about post-pandemic booms

What history tells you about post-pandemic booms

People spend more, take more risks—and demand more of politicians

Previous post-pandemic booms hold a number of lessons. The first is that although people are keen to get out and spend once the threat of infection passes, some uncertainty lingers. The second is that the structure of the economy undergoes a revolution. Automation rises and people become more entrepreneurial.

The last is that political instability tends to rise, as those who have suffered during a pandemic seek redress. Just think of “Les Misérables”, set after a cholera epidemic in France in the early 1830s. Enjoy the coming good times while they last; there may be a twist in the tale before long.

The cholera pandemic of the early 1830s hit France hard. It wiped out nearly 3% of Parisians in a month, and hospitals were overwhelmed by patients whose ailments doctors could not explain.

The end of the plague prompted an economic revival, with France following Britain into an industrial revolution. But as anyone who has read “Les Misérables” knows, the pandemic also contributed to another sort of revolution.

The city’s poor, hit hardest by the disease, fulminated against the rich, who had fled to their country homes to avoid contagion. France saw political instability for years afterwards.


So how will our economy boost after the pandemic?

With countries lifting the stay-at-home orders and promoting vaccinations, the world economy is now in a recovery mode. However, the situation is still unclear for many economists and policymakers. So let us take a glimpse at our history and what it tells us about the post-pandemic boom?

History suggests that after a series of disruptions like world wars and pandemics, GDPs bounce back. It offers three lessons- People like to spend, crises encourage business to employ new innovations and political instabilities.


People like to spend

History suggests that people accumulate savings during the first phase of economic recovery as spending opportunities vanish. Even in the first half of the 1870s, British household savings rates doubled during the smallpox era. Japan’s savings rate doubled during the first world war.

History also offers us a guide to what people do once life gets back to normal. Spending rises along with employment, but not in excess. History also shows when the Spanish flu was defeated in 1920, America felt like “a sick and tired” nation.

According to Goldman Sachs, an American consumer spends only 20% of their saving during 1946–49 (after world war II). And in 1949, the economy went into recession. Therefore, there is still little evidence of pandemic inducing surges in inflation.


Employing new innovations

Taking about the supply side of the economy- meaning how and where goods and services are produced. Some people may try new innovations to earn money. Historians believe that the Black Death made Europeans more adventurous.

Piling on ships and sailing towards new lands- something less risky than people dying at home. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research published in 1948, the number of startups increased during 1919.

The economists have made another link between pandemic and use of labour and technology. A research paper by IMF looks at recent outbreaks such as Ebola and SARS. The findings suggest the pandemic speeds up the employment of robots, especially when health is a significant issue — for example, the rise of automation in America during the 1920s. Some have even made links between the Black Death and Johannes Gutenberg Press.

A paper published by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco finds real wages increase after the pandemic. Sometimes, this is through the macabre mechanism.


Political Instability

When people have suffered in large, attitudes could shift towards the working class. Such incidences have led to political disorder. This is because pandemics can sometimes force us to look at pre-existing inequalities and political instability.

Ebola in 2013–16 increase violence in West Africa by 40%.

“It is reasonable to assume that, as the pandemic fades, unrest may re-emerge in locations wherever it previously existed,” researchers write in another IMF paper. Social unrest seems to peak two years after the pandemic ends. Therefore, appreciate the boom while it endures. Before long, there may be a twist in the story.

Newsletter

Related Articles

Saudi Press
0:00
0:00
Close
Dogfights in the Skies: Airbus on Track to Overtake Boeing and Claim Aviation Supremacy
Tim Cook Promises an AI Revolution at Apple: "One of the Most Significant Technologies of Our Generation"
Are AI Data Centres the Infrastructure of the Future or the Next Crisis?
Miles Worth Billions: How Airlines Generate Huge Profits
Zelenskyy Returns to White House Flanked by European Allies as Trump Pressures Land-Swap Deal with Putin
Beijing is moving into gold and other assets, diversifying away from the dollar
Cristiano Ronaldo Makes Surprise Stop at New Hong Kong Museum
Zelenskyy to Visit Washington after Trump–Putin Summit Yields No Agreement
High-Stakes Trump-Putin Summit on Ukraine Underway in Alaska
Iranian Protection Offers Chinese Vehicle Shipments a Cost Advantage over Japanese and Korean Makers
Saudi Arabia accelerates renewables to curb domestic oil use
Cristiano Ronaldo and Georgina Rodríguez announce engagement
Asia-Pacific dominates world’s busiest flight routes, with South Korea’s Jeju–Seoul corridor leading global rankings
Private Welsh island with 19th-century fort listed for sale at over £3 million
Sam Altman challenges Elon Musk with plans for Neuralink rival
Australia to Recognize the State of Palestine at UN Assembly
The Collapse of the Programmer Dream: AI Experts Now the Real High-Earners
Armenia and Azerbaijan to Sign US-Brokered Framework Agreement for Nakhchivan Corridor
British Labour Government Utilizes Counter-Terrorism Tools for Social Media Monitoring Against Legitimate Critics
WhatsApp Deletes 6.8 Million Scam Accounts Amid Rising Global Fraud
Nine people have been hospitalized and dozens of salmonella cases have been reported after an outbreak of infections linked to certain brands of pistachios and pistachio-containing products, according to the Public Health Agency of Canada
Texas Residents Face Water Restrictions While AI Data Centers Consume Millions of Gallons
Tariffs, AI, and the Shifting U.S. Macro Landscape: Navigating a New Economic Regime
India Rejects U.S. Tariff Threat, Defends Russian Oil Purchases
United States Establishes Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and Digital Asset Stockpile
Thousands of Private ChatGPT Conversations Accidentally Indexed by Google
China Tightens Mineral Controls, Curtailing Critical Inputs for Western Defence Contractors
OpenAI’s Bold Bet: Teaching AI to Think, Not Just Chat
BP’s Largest Oil and Gas Find in 25 Years Uncovered Offshore Brazil
JPMorgan and Coinbase Unveil Partnership to Let Chase Cardholders Buy Crypto Directly
British Tourist Dies Following Hair Transplant in Turkey, Police Investigate
WhatsApp Users Targeted in New Scam Involving Account Takeovers
Trump Deploys Nuclear Submarines After Threats from Former Russian President Medvedev
Germany’s Economic Breakdown and the Return of Militarization: From Industrial Collapse to a New Offensive Strategy
IMF Upgrades Global Growth Forecast as Weaker Dollar Supports Outlook
Politics is a good business: Barack Obama’s Reported Net Worth Growth, 1990–2025
"Crazy Thing": OpenAI's Sam Altman Warns Of AI Voice Fraud Crisis In Banking
Japanese Prime Minister Vows to Stay After Coalition Loses Upper House Majority
President Trump Diagnosed with Chronic Venous Insufficiency After Leg Swelling
Man Dies After Being Pulled Into MRI Machine Due to Metal Chain in New York Clinic
FIFA Pressured to Rethink World Cup Calendar Due to Climate Change
"Can You Hit Moscow?" Trump Asked Zelensky To Make Putin "Feel The Pain"
Nvidia Becomes World’s First Four‑Trillion‑Dollar Company Amid AI Boom
Iranian President Reportedly Injured During Israeli Strike on Secret Facility
Kurdistan Workers Party Takes Symbolic Step Towards Peace in Northern Iraq
BRICS Expands Membership with Indonesia and Ten New Partner Countries
Elon Musk Founds a Party Following a Poll on X: "You Wanted It – You Got It!"
AI Raises Alarms Over Long-Term Job Security
Saudi Arabia Maintains Ties with Iran Despite Israel Conflict
Russia Formally Recognizes Taliban Government in Afghanistan
×