Saudi Press

Saudi Arabia and the world
Sunday, Mar 15, 2026

IEF Report: $4.3 Trillion in Upstream Oil and Gas Capital Expenditure Needed by 2030 for Energy Security and Transition

IEF Report: $4.3 Trillion in Upstream Oil and Gas Capital Expenditure Needed by 2030 for Energy Security and Transition

The International Energy Forum (IEF) estimates that the oil and gas industry requires $4.3 trillion in investments from 2025 to 2030 to meet rising demand and maintain market stability.
The IEF's report predicts oil demand will increase from 103 million barrels per day in 2023 to 110 million bpd in 2030.

IEF Secretary General Joseph McMonigle emphasized the importance of investing in new oil and gas supply to ensure energy market stability, which is crucial for economic and social wellbeing and progress on climate change.

He warned against high prices and volatility, which can undermine public support for the transition.

The International Energy Agency (IEF) predicts that global upstream oil and gas capital expenditure will grow by $24 billion this year, reaching over $600 billion for the first time in a decade.

However, the IEF estimates that an additional $135 billion in investment, or 22%, is needed by 2030 to ensure sufficient supply.

The report, released in collaboration with S&P Global, states that this estimate is 15% higher than last year and 41% higher than two years ago due to rising costs and stronger demand.

North America and Latin America are expected to account for over 60% of the global upstream investments between now and 2030.

Expected production declines and future demand growth require reinvesting existing cash flows even as the transition to renewable energy continues.

The International Energy Forum (IEF) predicts that North America will lead the capital expenditure (capex) growth in the oil industry up to 2030.

However, Latin America will play a significant role in non-OPEC supply growth, specifically for conventional crude oil, with planned expansions in Brazil and Guyana.

The region is expected to produce around 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from new or expanded conventional projects by 2030, which is over a third of the 6 million bpd approved globally.

The report also highlights significant uncertainty regarding the future demand for oil and gas and the pace of the energy transition to net-zero carbon emissions.

The forecasts for global oil and gas demand in 2030 vary greatly, with a gap of up to 27 million bpd between more conservative and ambitious climate scenario projections.

The International Energy Forum (IEF) suggests that increased investment in upstream oil and gas can support energy transition and ensure energy security.

The report emphasizes the importance of energy security during the energy transition, citing price shocks, shortages, and disruptions as potential consequences of disorderly transitions.

IEF notes that global conventional crude production is expected to decline by over 20 percent by 2035 without additional drilling.

Investments made in the oil and gas sector during this decade will impact production levels well into the next decade and beyond.

Therefore, maintaining adequate investment levels is crucial for stability and a just transition.

The International Energy Agency (IEF) stated that to counteract anticipated production decreases and meet future demand, significant investment in upstream oil production is necessary.

Conventional non-OPEC production is projected to decline by 9 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030 and 14 million bpd by 2035 without additional drilling.

The decline rates for non-conventional crude, including US shale, are even steeper, with more than an 80% decline expected in the next decade.

Additionally, oil and gas companies are increasing their spending to decrease carbon dioxide emissions, as the upstream sector accounts for approximately 60% of the industry's greenhouse gas emissions.

Companies are focusing on reducing Scope 1 and 2 emissions in their upstream operations to meet regulatory requirements, investor expectations, and environmental goals.

The text discusses the concept of Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions in the context of companies' greenhouse gas emissions.

Scope 1 refers to direct emissions from sources owned or controlled by the company, while Scope 2 refers to indirect emissions from purchased energy.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported an upward revision of capital expenditures (capex) forecast due to a greater focus on upstream decarbonization and strong profits in the energy sector.

Energy companies have been able to invest in capex using operating cash flow, reducing their reliance on debt financing.

This shift is significant as, during the COVID-19 pandemic and prior to it, investment was limited due to weak cash flow, external financing constraints, and low investor appetite.

The International Energy Agency (IEF) reported in May that to meet electric vehicle (EV) targets, the world needs to mine over twice the amount of copper ever excavated before.

This is due to the large increase in copper demand for EV batteries.

To achieve this, 55% more new copper mines must be opened by 2035.

Governments are encouraged to support this expansion.
Newsletter

Related Articles

Saudi Press
0:00
0:00
Close
Saudi Arabia Declares 2026 ‘Year of Artificial Intelligence’ in Major Push for Data-Driven Economy
Saudi Arabia’s 2018 Budget Signals Strong Push for Non-Oil Economic Growth
Pakistan Envoy in Riyadh Says Regional Diplomacy Intensifying to Prevent Wider Middle East War
Saudi Arabia Intercepts Dozens of Drones as Regional Strikes Kill Two in Oman
Saudi Arabia Redirects Oil Exports to Red Sea Ports as Strait of Hormuz Tensions Escalate
Saudi Arabia Intercepts Missile and Drone Barrage as Regional Conflict Intensifies
Iran Expands Drone and Missile Campaign Across Gulf as Conflict With US and Israel Intensifies
Muslims Worldwide Await Saudi Moon Sighting to Confirm Eid al-Fitr 2026 Date
F1 Calendar Faces Major Disruption as Middle East Conflict Threatens Bahrain and Saudi Races
Trump Says Most US Aircraft Hit in Saudi Base Attack Suffered Minimal Damage
Trump Says Most US Aircraft Hit in Saudi Base Attack Suffered Minimal Damage
Strait of Hormuz Crisis Forces Saudi Arabia Into Major Oil Production Shut-In
Strait of Hormuz Crisis Forces Saudi Arabia Into Major Oil Production Shut-In
Saudi Arabia Slashes Oil Output as Strait of Hormuz Crisis Cuts Deep Into Gulf Revenues
Saudi Arabia’s Cultural Scene Presses Ahead as Nation Navigates Regional War
Saudi-Pakistan Defence Pact Faces Real-World Constraints as Iran War Escalates
Saudi Arabia Offers Two Million Barrels of Crude From Red Sea as War Disrupts Gulf Exports
Formula One Faces Tens of Millions in Lost Revenue if Bahrain and Saudi Arabia Races Are Cancelled
Formula One Set to Cancel Bahrain and Saudi Arabian Grands Prix Amid Escalating Middle East War
Saudi Arabia Downs Dozens of Iranian Drones in Major Defensive Operation
Saudi Arabia Cuts Oil Output by About Twenty Percent as Iran War Disrupts Gulf Energy Flows
Formula One Set to Cancel Bahrain and Saudi Arabian Grands Prix Amid Escalating Iran War
Asian Energy Security Tested as Strait of Hormuz Disruption Threatens Oil Supplies
Iran Sets Three Conditions for Ending Regional War as Diplomatic Efforts Intensify
Saudi Arabia Launches Royal Institute of Anthropology to Examine Social Transformation
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif Arrives in Saudi Arabia for High-Level Talks
Saudi Aramco Turns to Ukrainian Drone Interceptors to Shield Oil Infrastructure from Iranian Threats
UK Foreign Secretary Travels to Saudi Arabia to Reinforce Support for Regional Allies
Rising Iran Conflict Casts Shadow Over Saudi Arabia’s $38 Billion Gaming Industry Ambitions
Iran Launches Missile and Drone Strikes Across Gulf as Oil Prices Surge Past $100
Saudi Air Defences Destroy Three Drones Targeting Strategic Shaybah Oil Field
Debate Grows Over Saudi Arabia’s Role in Sudan War Amid US Alliance Questions
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Travels to Saudi Arabia After Discussions With Iranian Leadership
Two Strategic Pipelines Allow Saudi Arabia and the UAE to Bypass the Strait of Hormuz
US Deploys Bunker-Buster Bombs to UK Airbase as Iran Conflict Intensifies
Iran warns of $200 oil as forces target merchant ships in Gulf
Japan to Release 45 Days of Oil Reserves Amid Iran Conflict
Saudi Red Sea Oil Exports Set for Record in March as Kingdom Reroutes Crude Amid Hormuz Crisis
Saudi Arabia Seeks Belgian Military Support After Iranian Missile Attacks
Saudi Arabia Welcomes US Decision to Designate Sudan’s Muslim Brotherhood as Terrorist Organisation
Saudi Aramco Plans Dual Gulf and Red Sea Export Routes as Iran Crisis Disrupts Oil Shipments
Saudi Cabinet Condemns Iranian Attacks and Reaffirms Kingdom’s Right to Defend Its Sovereignty
Ukraine Deploys Counter-Drone Teams to Gulf States as Iranian Drone Threat Expands
Bahrain Grand Prix Faces Uncertainty as Saudi Arabia Works to Keep Formula One Race on Track
Saudi Arabia Faces New Strategic Dilemma in Yemen as Regional War Reshapes Calculations
OPEC Confirms Saudi-Led Oil Output Increase as Iran War Disrupts Global Energy Markets
Pakistan Pledges Rapid Support for Saudi Arabia Amid Escalating Middle East Tensions
Global Energy Agency Announces Record Release of 400 Million Barrels to Stabilize Oil Markets Amid Hormuz Disruption
Aramco Warns Global Oil Market Faces ‘Catastrophic’ Shock if Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed
Iran Launches Drone and Missile Attacks Across Gulf Targets Including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain
×