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Thursday, Dec 26, 2024

IEF Report: $4.3 Trillion in Upstream Oil and Gas Capital Expenditure Needed by 2030 for Energy Security and Transition

IEF Report: $4.3 Trillion in Upstream Oil and Gas Capital Expenditure Needed by 2030 for Energy Security and Transition

The International Energy Forum (IEF) estimates that the oil and gas industry requires $4.3 trillion in investments from 2025 to 2030 to meet rising demand and maintain market stability.
The IEF's report predicts oil demand will increase from 103 million barrels per day in 2023 to 110 million bpd in 2030.

IEF Secretary General Joseph McMonigle emphasized the importance of investing in new oil and gas supply to ensure energy market stability, which is crucial for economic and social wellbeing and progress on climate change.

He warned against high prices and volatility, which can undermine public support for the transition.

The International Energy Agency (IEF) predicts that global upstream oil and gas capital expenditure will grow by $24 billion this year, reaching over $600 billion for the first time in a decade.

However, the IEF estimates that an additional $135 billion in investment, or 22%, is needed by 2030 to ensure sufficient supply.

The report, released in collaboration with S&P Global, states that this estimate is 15% higher than last year and 41% higher than two years ago due to rising costs and stronger demand.

North America and Latin America are expected to account for over 60% of the global upstream investments between now and 2030.

Expected production declines and future demand growth require reinvesting existing cash flows even as the transition to renewable energy continues.

The International Energy Forum (IEF) predicts that North America will lead the capital expenditure (capex) growth in the oil industry up to 2030.

However, Latin America will play a significant role in non-OPEC supply growth, specifically for conventional crude oil, with planned expansions in Brazil and Guyana.

The region is expected to produce around 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from new or expanded conventional projects by 2030, which is over a third of the 6 million bpd approved globally.

The report also highlights significant uncertainty regarding the future demand for oil and gas and the pace of the energy transition to net-zero carbon emissions.

The forecasts for global oil and gas demand in 2030 vary greatly, with a gap of up to 27 million bpd between more conservative and ambitious climate scenario projections.

The International Energy Forum (IEF) suggests that increased investment in upstream oil and gas can support energy transition and ensure energy security.

The report emphasizes the importance of energy security during the energy transition, citing price shocks, shortages, and disruptions as potential consequences of disorderly transitions.

IEF notes that global conventional crude production is expected to decline by over 20 percent by 2035 without additional drilling.

Investments made in the oil and gas sector during this decade will impact production levels well into the next decade and beyond.

Therefore, maintaining adequate investment levels is crucial for stability and a just transition.

The International Energy Agency (IEF) stated that to counteract anticipated production decreases and meet future demand, significant investment in upstream oil production is necessary.

Conventional non-OPEC production is projected to decline by 9 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030 and 14 million bpd by 2035 without additional drilling.

The decline rates for non-conventional crude, including US shale, are even steeper, with more than an 80% decline expected in the next decade.

Additionally, oil and gas companies are increasing their spending to decrease carbon dioxide emissions, as the upstream sector accounts for approximately 60% of the industry's greenhouse gas emissions.

Companies are focusing on reducing Scope 1 and 2 emissions in their upstream operations to meet regulatory requirements, investor expectations, and environmental goals.

The text discusses the concept of Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions in the context of companies' greenhouse gas emissions.

Scope 1 refers to direct emissions from sources owned or controlled by the company, while Scope 2 refers to indirect emissions from purchased energy.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported an upward revision of capital expenditures (capex) forecast due to a greater focus on upstream decarbonization and strong profits in the energy sector.

Energy companies have been able to invest in capex using operating cash flow, reducing their reliance on debt financing.

This shift is significant as, during the COVID-19 pandemic and prior to it, investment was limited due to weak cash flow, external financing constraints, and low investor appetite.

The International Energy Agency (IEF) reported in May that to meet electric vehicle (EV) targets, the world needs to mine over twice the amount of copper ever excavated before.

This is due to the large increase in copper demand for EV batteries.

To achieve this, 55% more new copper mines must be opened by 2035.

Governments are encouraged to support this expansion.
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