Saudi Press

Saudi Arabia and the world
Sunday, Jun 01, 2025

Analysis: Syria’s Assad hoping for Iran nuclear deal success

Analysis: Syria’s Assad hoping for Iran nuclear deal success

Israel’s attack on Damascus airport last week highlights the importance of a deal between Iran and the West to Syria.

Alongside Syria’s war, another conflict between Israel and Iran has been quietly carrying on.

Fearful of Iranian entrenchment across the border in Syria, Israel has pursued a “mowing the grass” strategy to counter Tehran’s influence, which has entailed countless Israeli attacks on Iranian-backed forces in Syria, from the Fatemiyoun Brigade to Hezbollah.

With Russia, at least until this year, not standing in the way of Israel’s attacks against Tehran’s allies and interests in Syria, and the United States giving its unconditional support to Israel’s belligerence, Tel Aviv has been able to act with total impunity in Syria.

Therefore, it was not necessarily a huge shock on June 10 when Israel carried out air attacks that damaged Damascus International Airport, forcing it to shut down. Israeli media outlets have reported that Israel took this action because of Iranian weapons being transferred to Syria via the airport.

The targeting of the airport occurred against the backdrop of continuing negotiations to revive the nuclear deal between Iran and the West. Negotiations have, however, stalled, with a reconstituted deal currently looking improbable.

If the nuclear deal talks collapse in acrimony, what would that mean for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government and the future of confrontations in his country between Israel on one side and Iran on the other?

In 2015, when the nuclear deal was first signed, al-Assad jubilantly hailed the nuclear deal’s signing as an “historic achievement” while anti-regime rebels expressed their fears that the accord would lead to “an increase in Iranian influence in the region”.

Seven years later, a revived nuclear deal would similarly delight the Syrian president. If Tehran and Washington can find a middle ground that results in the deal being salvaged, Iran would become less isolated on the international stage, which would benefit the Syrian government.

Such a scenario would add to the concerns of the Turkish-backed Syrian opposition.

Maintaining their grip on parts of northern Syria’s Idlib province, these anti-Assad forces worry that an easing of US pressure on Tehran might make al-Assad more confident in his quest to reconquer every inch of Syria, threatening the millions of Syrians who have aligned themselves with the country’s opposition.




Nuclear deal benefits al-Assad


Heavily dependent on Iran and Russia, Syria’s government stands to gain from either the Iranian or Russian economy being less sanctioned, particularly as it attempts to rebuild areas that have been destroyed in the war.

“Lifting sanctions will enable Tehran to benefit from the windfall of higher oil prices and place it in a stronger financial position to assist with Syria’s reconstruction,” Randa Slim, the director of conflict resolution at the Middle East Institute, told Al Jazeera. “It will increase trade between the two countries as Syrian companies doing business with Iran will not run the risk of getting sanctioned.”

Yet, considering how badly the nuclear negotiations in Vienna are moving, with each passing day there seem to be fewer reasons for al-Assad to have an optimistic outlook towards a potential revival of the nuclear deal, which could lead to more regional conflagrations.

The collapse of nuclear deal negotiations “will likely escalate tensions between Iran and Israel,” according to Slim, who does not expect the accord to be reconstituted. “We have recently witnessed the increase in the tempo and scope of Israeli attacks in Syria.”

Camille Otrakji, a Damascus-born, Montreal-based Syria specialist, told Al Jazeera that “there is a clear sense of pessimism and frustration in Damascus”.

Should Washington and Tehran fail to revive the 2015 deal, al-Assad’s government would come under pressure domestically and from its regional allies, such as Iran and Hezbollah, to “seriously consider a military confrontation with Israel that many hope would convince the United States to engage in negotiations to bring a peaceful end to the Syrian conflict,” added Otrakji.




IRGC Aggression in Syria


Opponents of the nuclear deal constantly criticise the nuclear deal for not addressing the non-nuclear dimensions of Iran’s foreign policy in the Middle East, underscored by the Islamic republic’s unwavering support for the Syrian government.

Frequently, voices in the US who believe that reconstituting the nuclear deal would be bad for Washington’s interests in the Middle East point to the fact that salvaging the accord would put more money into the Iranian state’s hands, which would result in the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) having more resources for its activities in Arab countries like Syria, as well as Lebanon and Yemen.

Objectively, there is no denying that sanctions relief on Tehran would put more money in the Iranian government’s hands, making the IRGC’s pockets deeper.

Yet, it can be argued that a collapse of the nuclear deal negotiations may actually lead to further Iranian activity in the region.

“[It] would certainly embolden Iranian foreign policy and its forward posture in the Middle East, particularly its foothold in the Levant and aims against regional rivals in Israel and the Gulf,” explained Caroline Rose, a senior analyst and head of the Power Vacuums programme at the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy. “While the lack of sanctions relief will of course perpetuate constraints and concerns related to Iran’s economy, it’s likely that the IRGC will seek to adopt a more emboldened approach among its proxies within the security landscapes of Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.”



Newsletter

Related Articles

Saudi Press
0:00
0:00
Close
OPEC+ Agrees to Increase Oil Output for Third Consecutive Month
Turkey Detains Istanbul Officials Amid Anti-Corruption Crackdown
Meta and Anduril Collaborate on AI-Driven Military Augmented Reality Systems
EU Central Bank Pushes to Replace US Dollar with Euro as World’s Main Currency
European and Arab Ministers Convene in Madrid to Address Gaza Conflict
U.S. Health Secretary Ends Select COVID-19 Vaccine Recommendations
Trump Warns Putin Is 'Playing with Fire' Amid Escalating Ukraine Conflict
India and Pakistan Engage Trump-Linked Lobbyists to Influence U.S. Policy
U.S. Halts New Student Visa Interviews Amid Enhanced Security Measures
Trump Administration Cancels $100 Million in Federal Contracts with Harvard
SpaceX Starship Test Flight Ends in Failure, Mars Mission Timeline Uncertain
King Charles Affirms Canadian Sovereignty Amid U.S. Statehood Pressure
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Founder Warns Against Trusting Regime in Nuclear Talks
UAE Offers Free ChatGPT Plus Subscriptions to Citizens
Lebanon Initiates Plan to Disarm Palestinian Factions
Iran and U.S. Make Limited Progress in Nuclear Talks
The Daily Debate: The Fall of the Dollar — Strategic Reset or Economic Self-Destruction?
Trump Administration's Tariff Policies and Dollar Strategy Spark Global Economic Debate
OpenAI Acquires Jony Ive’s Startup for $6.5 Billion to Build a Revolutionary “Third Core Device”
Turkey Weighs Citizens in Public as Erdoğan Launches National Slimming Campaign
Saudi-Spanish Business Forum Commences in Riyadh
Saudi Arabia and Spain Sign MoU to Boost SME Sectors
UK Suspends Trade Talks with Israel Amid Gaza Offensive
Iran and U.S. Set for Fifth Round of Nuclear Talks Amid Rising Tensions
Russia Expands Military Presence Near Finland Amid Rising Tensions
Indian Scholar Arrested in Crackdown Over Pakistan Conflict Commentary
Israel Eases Gaza Blockade Amid Internal Dispute Over Military Strategy
President Biden’s announcement of advanced prostate cancer sparked public sympathy—but behind closed doors, Democrats are in panic
A Chinese company made solar tiles that look way nicer than regular panels!
Indian jet shootdown: the all-robot legion behind China’s PL-15E missiles
The Chinese Dragon: The True Winner in the India-Pakistan Clash
Australia's Venomous Creatures Contribute to Life-Saving Antivenom Programme
The Spanish Were Right: Long Working Hours Harm Brain Function
Did Former FBI Director Call for Violence Against Trump? Instagram Post Sparks Uproar
US and UAE Partner to Develop Massive AI Data Center Complex
Apple's $95 Million Siri Settlement: Eligible Users Have Until July 2 to File Claims
US and UAE Reach Preliminary Agreement on Nvidia AI Chip Imports
President Trump and Elon Musk Welcomed by Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim with Cybertruck Convoy
Strong Warning Issued: Do Not Use General Chatbots for Medical, Legal, or Educational Guidance
Saudi Arabia Emerges as Global Tech Magnet with U.S. Backing and Trump’s Visit
This was President's departure from Saudi Arabia. The Crown Prince personally escorted him back to the airport.
NVIDIA and Saudi Arabia Launch Strategic Partnership to Establish AI Centers
Trump Meets Syrian President Ahmad al-Shara in Historic Encounter
Trump takes a blow torch to the neocons and interventionists while speaking to the Saudis
US and Saudi Arabia Sign Landmark Agreements Across Multiple Sectors
Why Saudi Arabia Rolled Out a Purple Carpet for Donald Trump Instead of Red
Elon Musk Joins Trump Meeting in Saudi Arabia
Trump says it would be 'stupid' not to accept gift of Qatari plane
Quantum Computing Threatens Bitcoin Security
Michael Jordan to Serve as Analyst for NBA Games
×