Saudi Press

Saudi Arabia and the world
Sunday, Jun 22, 2025

Second wave in London is likely ‘in almost all cases’, simulation finds

Scientists modelling the coronavirus outbreak using detailed simulations of London boroughs say a second wave of cases is likely in ‘almost all cases’.
The simulation software used predicts how local measures such as closing certain shops or quarantining residents in particular buildings affects the virus’ spread.

It has been released to the public as an open-source tool and has already been used for local authority decisions in north London.

The Flu And Coronavirus Simulator (FACS) team said they were ‘pessimistic’ over the chances of a second wave after looking at full simulations for a number of areas including Brent, Ealing, Hillingdon and Harrow.

More basic models have been released for areas including Westminster, Chelsea, Fulham and Kensington.

The researchers used data collected from an NHS trust to create an 80-day forecast covering a ‘very wide range of local intervention types’ from shutting pubs to restricting individual households.

They compared a number of scenarios in each area, including zero restrictions, a borough-wide lockdown, and a ‘dynamic’ lockdown using a mix of changing restrictions.

Dr Derek Groen, a lecturer in computer simulation at Brunel University and part of the FACS team, said: ‘The models definitely see a second wave in almost all cases, although it looks much less deep than the first wave, but it could be more prolonged.’

‘The results between boroughs has so far varied a lot, so we’re trying to understand better why that is.’

The modelling used findings from current scientific studies but can be updated in line with new research by whoever uses the code, Dr Groen added.

He said: ‘So, for example, it’s not totally clear at the moment how many people are wearing masks.

‘We can put in a number, say, 20%, then run the simulation – but if people want to put in a different number, they can just do more runs and vary the number.’

Dr Imran Mahmood, another Brunel researcher on the FACS team, said: ‘The local authority had been considering what changes they needed to make regarding bed capacity in the coming years, and whether they should redirect patients to other hospitals, and these models helped support those decisions.

‘We hope that others can take the codes and model their local areas – so councils could do that or even local volunteers, to get an idea of how COVID-19 is spreading in their local community.

‘It probably can’t be set up by a complete layman, but people familiar with building simulations could do it.’

The FACS project is a collaboration between Brunel’s computer science department and the HiDALGO project, an EU-funded consortium of data analysis firms.
Newsletter

Related Articles

Saudi Press
0:00
0:00
Close
WATCH: Israeli forces show the aftermath of a massive airstrike at Iran's Isfahan nuclear site
We have new information and breaking details to share about what is shaping up to be a historic air campaign tonight
Six Massive Bombs Dropped on Fordow; Trump: 'A Historic Moment for the U.S., Israel, and the World'
Fordow: Deeply Buried Iranian Enrichment Site in U.S.–Israel Crosshairs
United States Conducts Precision Strikes on Iran’s Nuclear Sites
US strikes Iran nuclear sites, Trump says
Pakistan to nominate Trump for Nobel Peace Prize.
Israel Confirms Assassination of Quds Force Commander in Tehran
16 Billion Login Credentials Leaked in Unprecedented Cybersecurity Breach
Senate hearing on who was 'really running' Biden White House kicks off
G7 Leaders Fail to Reach Consensus on Key Global Issues
Mass exodus in Tehran as millions try to flee following Trump’s evacuation order
Iranian Military Officers Reportedly Seek Contact with Reza Pahlavi, Signal Intent to Defect
Vietnam Emerges as Luxury Yacht Destination for Ultra‑Rich
China's Iranian Oil Imports Face Disruption Amid Escalating Middle East Tensions
Trump Demands Iran's Unconditional Surrender Amid Escalating Conflict
Israeli Airstrike Targets Iranian State TV in Central Tehran
President Trump is leaving the G7 summit early and has ordered the National Security Council to the Situation Room
Netanyahu Signals Potential Regime Change in Iran
Analysts Warn Iran May Resort to Unconventional Warfare
Iranian Regime Faces Existential Threat Amid Conflict
Energy Infrastructure Becomes War Zone in Middle East
Iran Conducts Ballistic Missile Launches Amid Heightened Tensions with Israel
Iran Signals Openness to Nuclear Negotiations Amid Ongoing Regional Tensions
Shock Within Iran’s Leadership: Khamenei’s Failed Plan to Launch 1,000 Missiles Against Israel
Trump's Anti-War Stance Tested Amid Israel-Iran Conflict
UK Deploys Jets to Middle East Amid Rising Tensions
Exiled Iranian Prince Reza Pahlavi Urges Overthrow of Khamenei Regime
Wreck of $17 Billion San José Galleon Identified Off Colombia After 300 Years
Iran Launches Extensive Missile Attack on Israel Following Israeli Strikes on Nuclear Sites
Israel Issues Ultimatum to Iran Over Potential Retaliation and Nuclear Facilities
Black Box Recovered from Air India Crash Site
Coinbase CEO Warns Bitcoin Could Supplant US Dollar Amid Mounting National Debt
Trump to Iran: Make a Deal — Sign or Die
Operation "Like a Lion": Israel Strikes Iran in Unprecedented Offensive
Israel Launches 'Operation Rising Lion' Targeting Iranian Nuclear and Military Sites
Israeli Forces Intercept Gaza-Bound Aid Vessel Carrying Greta Thunberg
IMF Warns of Severe Global Trade War Impacts on Emerging Markets
Syria to Reconnect to Global Economy After 14 Years of Isolation
Israel Confirms Arming Gaza Clan to Counter Hamas Influence
Global News Roundup: From Ukraine's strategic military strikes and Russia's demands and Tensions Escalate in Ukraine, to serious legal issues faced by Britons in Bali and Trump's media criticism, the latest developments highlight a turbulent landscape
U.S. Reduces Military Presence in Syria
Trump Demands Iran End All Uranium Enrichment in Nuclear Talks
Iran Warns Europe Against Politicizing UN Nuclear Report
Paris Saint-Germain's Greatest Triumph Is Football’s Lowest Point
OPEC+ Agrees to Increase Oil Output for Third Consecutive Month
Turkey Detains Istanbul Officials Amid Anti-Corruption Crackdown
Meta and Anduril Collaborate on AI-Driven Military Augmented Reality Systems
EU Central Bank Pushes to Replace US Dollar with Euro as World’s Main Currency
European and Arab Ministers Convene in Madrid to Address Gaza Conflict
×