Saudi Press

Saudi Arabia and the world
Sunday, Jun 01, 2025

El Nino: What is it and how does it impact the weather closer to home?

El Nino: What is it and how does it impact the weather closer to home?

A major El Nino event usually occurs every three to seven years and could last for several months at a time. So far, the hottest year on record is 2016. Here's what you need to know about the global weather event and what it means.

The United Nations has warned of record-breaking heat because of the weather phenomenon El Nino.

However, a Sky News weather expert says we're unlikely to see the effects of a new El Nino in the UK this year.

So what is it and how will it affect us on a global scale?

UN warning

The United Nations has warned that higher global temperatures and possibly new heat records could be seen due to climate change and the return of the El Nino weather phenomenon this year.

For three years, the opposite of El Nino - the cooling La Nina weather pattern - has been dominant in the Pacific Ocean.

This has lowered global temperatures slightly - but 2023 will see the return of the warmer counterpart.

Wilfran Moufouma Okia, head of the UN's World Meteorological Organization (WMO), said there was no current estimate of the impact El Nino will have on temperatures.

"El Nino will fuel the temperature globally," he said.

"We feel the effect of El Nino temperatures globally with a slight delay."

The WMO said it could not predict the strength or duration of El Nino.

So far, the world's hottest year on record is 2016. El Nino was particularly strong that year.

The World Meteorological Organisation has warned the global temperature is set to break a key limit for the first time within the next five years - and there is a 98% chance of the hottest year on record being broken during that time.

Dr Leon Hermanson, of the Met Office Hadley Centre, said the record will likely come from a combination of greenhouse gases and El Nino.

What is El Nino?

El Nino is part of a natural cycle, according to Sky News weather presenter Jo Wheeler.

She said: "ENSO - the El Nino-Southern Oscillation - warms and cools the tropical Pacific in a rotation that lasts between one and three years, impacting weather conditions across the world.

"Both El Nino and La Nina have defining characteristics, with El Nino associated with warmer than normal ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific - which leads to rainier cooler conditions in the south and warmer conditions in parts of the north.

"La Nina represents a cooling effect."

With El Nino, the equatorial Pacific Ocean typically gets around three degrees warmer than usual.

With La Nina, it's three degrees colder.

As Jo says, they both set off a series of chain reactions for weather around the world.

The El Nino name - which means "the boy" in Spanish - is said to have originated from "El Nino de Navidad," which translates to The Christmas Child.

It's said that centuries ago Peruvian fishermen named the weather phenomenon after the newborn Christ.

It probably won't surprise you that La Nina - El Nino's opposite - means "the girl".

A major El Nino event usually occurs every three to seven years and could last for several months at a time.

The strongest El Nino episodes were in 1997 to 1998 and 2015 to 2016.

When will the return of El Nino affect UK weather?

So, does El Nino increase the chances of another record-breaking summer here in the UK?

In 2022, the UK recorded temperatures above 40C for the first time ever, where much of England remained under the Met Office's first-ever red warning.


El Nino often peaks during December, the Met Office said on its website.

But as it's in the Pacific, the knock-on effects can take a while to noticeably impact the weather around the world.

So, despite the UN warnings about the return of El Nino this year, we won't be affected for a while.

According to Jo Wheeler: "El Nino will not affect the summer weather here - it'll arrive too late.

"It might affect next year though - if it happens."

For now, La Nina still dominates - with its cooling of the oceans and associated effects.

The Sky News weather presenter added a switch back to El Nino could mean a hotter than usual 2024 in the UK though - and a frostier than usual winter beforehand.

She said: "The WMO suggest that El Nino will arrive by the end of summer which would increase the chances of 'hotter than normal' temperatures in 2024 but also that the preceding winter season will be frosty."

Why does El Nino affect weather in the UK and Europe?


El Nino matters for us because of another key weather phenomenon - the jet stream.

The jet stream is a band of strong eastward winds that carries rain across the Atlantic, often referenced in weather forecasts.

During El Nino winters, northern Europe can be colder and drier, with southern Europe getting more rain - because the jet stream shifts course.

On the flip side, El Nino summers in the UK can be hotter and drier. La Nina summers are often wetter.

However, the Met Office admits these are not hard and fast rules.

Scientific understanding of how El Nino and La Nina - as well as other natural temperature cycles over the world's big oceans - affect the weather across the world, is always evolving.

Newsletter

Related Articles

Saudi Press
0:00
0:00
Close
OPEC+ Agrees to Increase Oil Output for Third Consecutive Month
Turkey Detains Istanbul Officials Amid Anti-Corruption Crackdown
Meta and Anduril Collaborate on AI-Driven Military Augmented Reality Systems
EU Central Bank Pushes to Replace US Dollar with Euro as World’s Main Currency
European and Arab Ministers Convene in Madrid to Address Gaza Conflict
U.S. Health Secretary Ends Select COVID-19 Vaccine Recommendations
Trump Warns Putin Is 'Playing with Fire' Amid Escalating Ukraine Conflict
India and Pakistan Engage Trump-Linked Lobbyists to Influence U.S. Policy
U.S. Halts New Student Visa Interviews Amid Enhanced Security Measures
Trump Administration Cancels $100 Million in Federal Contracts with Harvard
SpaceX Starship Test Flight Ends in Failure, Mars Mission Timeline Uncertain
King Charles Affirms Canadian Sovereignty Amid U.S. Statehood Pressure
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Founder Warns Against Trusting Regime in Nuclear Talks
UAE Offers Free ChatGPT Plus Subscriptions to Citizens
Lebanon Initiates Plan to Disarm Palestinian Factions
Iran and U.S. Make Limited Progress in Nuclear Talks
The Daily Debate: The Fall of the Dollar — Strategic Reset or Economic Self-Destruction?
Trump Administration's Tariff Policies and Dollar Strategy Spark Global Economic Debate
OpenAI Acquires Jony Ive’s Startup for $6.5 Billion to Build a Revolutionary “Third Core Device”
Turkey Weighs Citizens in Public as Erdoğan Launches National Slimming Campaign
Saudi-Spanish Business Forum Commences in Riyadh
Saudi Arabia and Spain Sign MoU to Boost SME Sectors
UK Suspends Trade Talks with Israel Amid Gaza Offensive
Iran and U.S. Set for Fifth Round of Nuclear Talks Amid Rising Tensions
Russia Expands Military Presence Near Finland Amid Rising Tensions
Indian Scholar Arrested in Crackdown Over Pakistan Conflict Commentary
Israel Eases Gaza Blockade Amid Internal Dispute Over Military Strategy
President Biden’s announcement of advanced prostate cancer sparked public sympathy—but behind closed doors, Democrats are in panic
A Chinese company made solar tiles that look way nicer than regular panels!
Indian jet shootdown: the all-robot legion behind China’s PL-15E missiles
The Chinese Dragon: The True Winner in the India-Pakistan Clash
Australia's Venomous Creatures Contribute to Life-Saving Antivenom Programme
The Spanish Were Right: Long Working Hours Harm Brain Function
Did Former FBI Director Call for Violence Against Trump? Instagram Post Sparks Uproar
US and UAE Partner to Develop Massive AI Data Center Complex
Apple's $95 Million Siri Settlement: Eligible Users Have Until July 2 to File Claims
US and UAE Reach Preliminary Agreement on Nvidia AI Chip Imports
President Trump and Elon Musk Welcomed by Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim with Cybertruck Convoy
Strong Warning Issued: Do Not Use General Chatbots for Medical, Legal, or Educational Guidance
Saudi Arabia Emerges as Global Tech Magnet with U.S. Backing and Trump’s Visit
This was President's departure from Saudi Arabia. The Crown Prince personally escorted him back to the airport.
NVIDIA and Saudi Arabia Launch Strategic Partnership to Establish AI Centers
Trump Meets Syrian President Ahmad al-Shara in Historic Encounter
Trump takes a blow torch to the neocons and interventionists while speaking to the Saudis
US and Saudi Arabia Sign Landmark Agreements Across Multiple Sectors
Why Saudi Arabia Rolled Out a Purple Carpet for Donald Trump Instead of Red
Elon Musk Joins Trump Meeting in Saudi Arabia
Trump says it would be 'stupid' not to accept gift of Qatari plane
Quantum Computing Threatens Bitcoin Security
Michael Jordan to Serve as Analyst for NBA Games
×