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Friday, May 09, 2025

Trump's Potential $464m Fraud Fine Payment through Truth Social Merger: High Risks for Investors and Uncertain Outcomes

Trump's Potential $464m Fraud Fine Payment through Truth Social Merger: High Risks for Investors and Uncertain Outcomes

Former US President Donald Trump may receive funds to pay a $464m fraud fine through his social media company, Truth Social, which is set to merge with Digital World Acquisition Corp. Trump will own at least 58% of the merged company, worth nearly $3bn at current share prices.
However, Digital World's own auditor warned of potential business failure, and the deal faces red flags such as unresolved lawsuits and a previous $18m fraud settlement.

Shares in Digital World dropped over 13% after the approval.

Trump is attempting to use the stock market to help pay a fraud fine.

A SPAC named Digital World, backed primarily by individual investors and Trump supporters, has received approval to merge with Trump Media & Technology Group, allowing it to go public on the Nasdaq exchange under the ticker DJT.

The deal does not immediately resolve Trump's financial issues, including a New York fraud penalty, as he is prohibited from selling or transferring shares for at least six months.

The company could grant Trump an exemption.

Trump may attempt to secure a loan using the value of his Mar-a-Lago club shares as collateral.

However, analysts believe banks would lend him less than the shares' worth due to business risks.

A supporter, identified as Captain DWAC, urged investors to approve the deal, speculating it could help Trump in his legal battles and potentially allowing him to leverage the shares for a larger loan.

The investor encouraged supporters to invest in free speech and potentially risk losing all their money.

Analysts warn that Digital World shareholders face a high risk of financial loss due to the significant drop in share prices, despite Trump Media having an implied value of nearly $5bn based on the current share price.

Trump Media brought in only $3.3m in revenue and lost nearly $50m in the first nine months of last year.

The merger will provide Trump Media with over $200m in cash for growth and expansion.

However, Truth Social, which launched to the public in 2022 as an alternative to major social media platforms, remains small with about 8.9 million sign-ups.

Trump Media cautions investors that it does not provide metrics like user growth or engagement to give insight into its operations.

Truth Social, the social media platform founded by former President Donald Trump, received about five million visits in February, while Elon Musk's X (formerly Twitter) received over 100 million visits.

Digital World Acquisition Corp., the special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) that took Truth Social public, is considered a "meme stock" with a share price not reflecting the company's fundamentals and likely to decline.

Analysts predict a collapse for Truth Social, but the timing and speed are uncertain.

Individual investors have heavily invested in Digital World stock following the Trump deal announcement and his Iowa primary win.

Before the upcoming vote, there has been less trading activity on Trump Media, indicating that professional firms may be behind the purchases.

Trump, who has primarily contributed to Trump Media with his name and posts, is expected to be the primary beneficiary of these transactions.

Michael Ohlrogge, a law professor at New York University, explains that this represents a significant wealth transfer from investors to Trump, which could be highly profitable for him.
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