This could lead to a security vacuum, as local forces may not be able to fill the gap, and Al-Shabab, an Al-Qaeda affiliate, could take advantage of the situation.

At least 3,000 Ethiopian soldiers are part of an African Union peacekeeping mission, and an additional 5,000-7,000 are stationed in Somalia under a bilateral agreement.

The withdrawal of Ethiopian troops could further destabilize Somalia.

Relations between Mogadishu (the capital of Somalia) and Addis Ababa (the capital of Ethiopia) worsened in 2023 when Ethiopia agreed to lease coastline from Somaliland, a region of Somalia that declared independence in 1991 but lacks international recognition.

Ethiopia offered recognition in return for allowing a naval base and commercial port.

Mogadishu considers this agreement illegal, and Somalia's National Security Adviser, Hussein Sheikh-Ali, warned that Ethiopian troops and the African Union Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) would have to leave if the agreement wasn't repealed by the end of June or when the mission's mandate was decided.

Ethiopia's role as an ally of Somalia and an alleged aggressor is under scrutiny as the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), which includes Ethiopian troops, prepares to withdraw.

The Somali government has asked for a delay in the withdrawal due to military setbacks, but Ethiopian officials have not commented.

AMISOM, mandated by the UN Security Council, is scheduled to fully withdraw and hand over security responsibilities to the Somali state by the end of 2024.

The mission consists of troops from Burundi, Djibouti, Uganda, Kenya, and Ethiopia.