Saudi Press

Saudi Arabia and the world
Saturday, Mar 14, 2026

Recession isn't 'inevitable' but inflation remains 'unacceptably high'

Recession isn't 'inevitable' but inflation remains 'unacceptably high'

A coming recession is not "at all inevitable" as the Federal Reserve takes aggressive actions to address inflation, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Sunday

A recession is not "at all inevitable" as the Federal Reserve takes increasingly aggressive action to address sharply rising inflation, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Sunday.

"I expect the economy to slow," Yellen told "This Week" anchor George Stephanopoulos. "It's been growing at a very rapid rate, as the economy, as the labor market, has recovered and we have reached full employment. It's natural now that we expect a transition to steady and stable growth, but I don't think a recession is at all inevitable."

"Clearly, inflation is unacceptably high," Yellen continued. "It's President [Joe] Biden's top priority to bring it down. And [Fed] Chair [Jerome] Powell has said that his goal is to bring inflation down while maintaining a strong labor market. That's going to take skill and luck, but I believe it's possible."

The current inflation rate, year-over-year, is at a 40-year high of 8.6%, according to the most recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

On Wednesday, in an effort to cool those rising costs, the Fed increased interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point -- marking the largest rate increase since 1994. A higher interest rate increases borrowing costs for consumers and companies, potentially slowing inflation by decreasing demand.

"You say it's not inevitable, but I guess the question is: Is it likely?" Stephanopoulos pressed Yellen, citing data on consumer pull-back and slowing movement in the job market and noting that she, Biden and Powell were all wrong about inflation's lasting impact last year.

"Consumer spending remains very strong. There's month-to-month volatility, but overall spending is strong, although patterns of spending are changing and higher food and energy prices are certainly affecting consumers," Yellen said.

"But bank balances are high," she continued. "It's clear that most consumers, even lower-income households, continue to have buffer stocks of savings that will enable them to maintain spending. So I don't see a drop-off in consumer spending as a likely cause of the recession in the months ahead. And the labor market is very strong, arguably the strongest of the post-war period."

Yellen attributed inflation partly to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, saying the conflict had increased global prices on energy and food.

"It's important to recognize that the United States is certainly not the only advanced economy suffering from high inflation," Yellen said. "We see it in the U.K., we see it in France, Germany, Italy; and the causes of it are global, not local."

She said "energy prices spillover is really half of inflation," but that Biden has been working to keep oil prices from going even higher.

Gas prices remain at record highs after months of increases. The current national average is about $4.98 per gallon.

Yellen cited Biden's "historic" release of oil from the strategic petroleum reserve over six months in an effort to reduce prices -- though costs continue to climb.

"[Biden] stands ready to work and is encouraging producers of oil and refined products, gas, to work with him to increase supplies, to bring gas prices and energy prices down," Yellen said.

On Wednesday, Biden sent a letter to seven major oil refiners in the U.S., blasting them for posting record profits while consumers face record-high gas prices and calling on them to increase production.

The American Petroleum Institute fired back, with its CEO and president arguing it's "the administration’s misguided policy agenda shifting away from domestic oil and natural gas [that] has compounded inflationary pressures and added headwinds to companies’ daily efforts to meet growing energy needs while reducing emissions."

"How do you respond to that?" Stephanopoulos pressed.

"I don't think that the policies are responsible for what's happening in the oil market," Yellen said. "I think that producers were partly caught unaware of the strength of the recovery in the economy and weren't ready to meet the needs of the economy. High prices should induce them to increase supplies over time."

While long-term efforts to bring down the cost of gas are being debated, Stephanopoulos asked about the short term.

"Several in Congress are calling for gas tax holidays. Prices average around $5 a gallon. Is that on the table?" Stephanopoulos asked.

"President Biden wants to do anything he possibly can to help consumers," Yellen said. "Gas prices have risen a great deal and it's clearly burdening households. So he stands ready to work with Congress, and that's an idea that's certainly worth considering."

Yellen also said the administration is considering lifting some Trump-era tariffs on Chinese goods.

"We all recognize that China engages in a range of unfair trade practices that it's important to address," Yellen said. "But the tariffs we inherited, some serve no strategic purpose and raise costs to consumers. And so, reconfiguring some of those tariffs so they make more sense and reduce some unnecessary burdens is something that's under consideration."

Newsletter

Related Articles

Saudi Press
0:00
0:00
Close
Strait of Hormuz Crisis Forces Saudi Arabia Into Major Oil Production Shut-In
Strait of Hormuz Crisis Forces Saudi Arabia Into Major Oil Production Shut-In
Saudi Arabia Slashes Oil Output as Strait of Hormuz Crisis Cuts Deep Into Gulf Revenues
Saudi Arabia’s Cultural Scene Presses Ahead as Nation Navigates Regional War
Saudi-Pakistan Defence Pact Faces Real-World Constraints as Iran War Escalates
Saudi Arabia Offers Two Million Barrels of Crude From Red Sea as War Disrupts Gulf Exports
Formula One Faces Tens of Millions in Lost Revenue if Bahrain and Saudi Arabia Races Are Cancelled
Formula One Set to Cancel Bahrain and Saudi Arabian Grands Prix Amid Escalating Middle East War
Saudi Arabia Downs Dozens of Iranian Drones in Major Defensive Operation
Saudi Arabia Cuts Oil Output by About Twenty Percent as Iran War Disrupts Gulf Energy Flows
Formula One Set to Cancel Bahrain and Saudi Arabian Grands Prix Amid Escalating Iran War
Asian Energy Security Tested as Strait of Hormuz Disruption Threatens Oil Supplies
Iran Sets Three Conditions for Ending Regional War as Diplomatic Efforts Intensify
Saudi Arabia Launches Royal Institute of Anthropology to Examine Social Transformation
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif Arrives in Saudi Arabia for High-Level Talks
Saudi Aramco Turns to Ukrainian Drone Interceptors to Shield Oil Infrastructure from Iranian Threats
UK Foreign Secretary Travels to Saudi Arabia to Reinforce Support for Regional Allies
Rising Iran Conflict Casts Shadow Over Saudi Arabia’s $38 Billion Gaming Industry Ambitions
Iran Launches Missile and Drone Strikes Across Gulf as Oil Prices Surge Past $100
Saudi Air Defences Destroy Three Drones Targeting Strategic Shaybah Oil Field
Debate Grows Over Saudi Arabia’s Role in Sudan War Amid US Alliance Questions
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Travels to Saudi Arabia After Discussions With Iranian Leadership
Two Strategic Pipelines Allow Saudi Arabia and the UAE to Bypass the Strait of Hormuz
US Deploys Bunker-Buster Bombs to UK Airbase as Iran Conflict Intensifies
Iran warns of $200 oil as forces target merchant ships in Gulf
Japan to Release 45 Days of Oil Reserves Amid Iran Conflict
Saudi Red Sea Oil Exports Set for Record in March as Kingdom Reroutes Crude Amid Hormuz Crisis
Saudi Arabia Seeks Belgian Military Support After Iranian Missile Attacks
Saudi Arabia Welcomes US Decision to Designate Sudan’s Muslim Brotherhood as Terrorist Organisation
Saudi Aramco Plans Dual Gulf and Red Sea Export Routes as Iran Crisis Disrupts Oil Shipments
Saudi Cabinet Condemns Iranian Attacks and Reaffirms Kingdom’s Right to Defend Its Sovereignty
Ukraine Deploys Counter-Drone Teams to Gulf States as Iranian Drone Threat Expands
Bahrain Grand Prix Faces Uncertainty as Saudi Arabia Works to Keep Formula One Race on Track
Saudi Arabia Faces New Strategic Dilemma in Yemen as Regional War Reshapes Calculations
OPEC Confirms Saudi-Led Oil Output Increase as Iran War Disrupts Global Energy Markets
Pakistan Pledges Rapid Support for Saudi Arabia Amid Escalating Middle East Tensions
Global Energy Agency Announces Record Release of 400 Million Barrels to Stabilize Oil Markets Amid Hormuz Disruption
Aramco Warns Global Oil Market Faces ‘Catastrophic’ Shock if Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed
Iran Launches Drone and Missile Attacks Across Gulf Targets Including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain
Saudi Arabia Elevates Fahad Al-Saif as Vision 2030 Enters Crucial Implementation Phase
Saudi Aramco Expands Routes to Move Oil Without Reliance on the Strait of Hormuz
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan Reaffirm Mutual Defense Cooperation Following Iran Strike
Saudi Arabia Plans Major Ukrainian Arms Deal to Counter Iranian Drone Threat
Pentagon Signals Intensification of U.S. Air Campaign as Iran Conflict Escalates
U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham Raises Prospect of Mutual Defense Pact With Saudi Arabia Amid Iran Conflict
Why Saudi Arabia Is Unlikely to Have Wanted U.S. Airstrikes on Iran
Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea Oil Exports Set to Reach Record High as Gulf Routes Face Disruption
Saudi Arabia Pushes East–West Oil Pipeline Toward Full Capacity as Hormuz Crisis Disrupts Global Energy Flows
Oil Prices Retreat From Peak as G7 Weighs Release of Strategic Reserves
Pentagon Identifies U.S. Soldier Who Died After Iranian Strike on Saudi Air Base
×