Saudi Press

Saudi Arabia and the world
Saturday, Jul 05, 2025

KAPSARC projects 1.9% Q-on-Q growth in global oil demand in Q3 2022

KAPSARC projects 1.9% Q-on-Q growth in global oil demand in Q3 2022

Global oil demand is projected to record a 1.9% quarter-on-quarter growth averaging 100.6 million barrels per day by the end of the third quarter this year, surpassing pre-COVID levels, according to King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC) upcoming KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook (KOMO). At 54 million barrels per day, non-OECD countries are expected to account for 53% of that growth.
Despite global headwinds and a looming recession, KAPSARC estimates a rise in oil demand across all nations in Q3, except for India, with the United States leading the way reaching 20.6 million barrels per day, accounting for 21% of demand. China, as second runner up, with roughly 15.3 million barrels per day, accounts for 15% of demand. India ranks third, followed by Saudi Arabia, with 4.8 million and 4.2 million barrels per day, respectively.

KAPSARC's oil and gas team predicts that gasoline will account for most of the demand growth in the United States ahead of the summer driving season. In China, demand is being fueled by the relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions, which translates into a resumption of local transportation activities as explained by Majed Al Suwailem, Oil and Gas Program Director at KAPSARC. “As for India, even though, the team projects it to make up the third biggest demand – the country’s anticipated Q-on-Q growth is slowed by almost 500,000-600,000 barrels per day owing to its monsoon season” he added.

Saudi Arabia is expected to witness a growth in demand this quarter by approximately 300,000-400,000 barrels per day, as the Kingdom aims to satisfy its vast cooling needs throughout the summer season.

On the supply side, 2.2 million barrels per day of net global growth is expected¬ (including the additions from SPR releases). This would imply an organic (non-SPR) increase of 0.9%, hitting 99.4 million barrels per day over the next quarter– this is the highest level of quarter-on-quarter growth seen in several years.

The Center expects U.S. shale to grow its output by 2.5% q-o-q with supply hitting roughly 11 million barrels per day (including NGLs). Saudi Arabia's q-o-q estimates point to growth of 3.2% reaching 12,356 million barrels per day for all liquids. This would account for about 60% of total OPEC oil supply growth.

KOMO is a quarterly publication by KAPSARC that leverages Saudi Arabia’s market knowledge to present an objective global oil outlook. The outlook forecasts quarterly supply, demand, risks, balances, and pricing using IEA data and econometric modeling, offering a vital third voice to the current Aramco and Saudi Ministry of Energy viewpoints.

The supply/demand projection from KOMO is an average for each quarter and does not consider short-term volatility. Actual supply and demand fluctuations will be variable, reflecting reactions to current geopolitical shifts as well as the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic. Other concerns may include unanticipated oil supply shortages caused by hurricanes, OPEC+ compliance, and escalating/diminishing geopolitical tensions, among others.
Newsletter

Related Articles

Saudi Press
0:00
0:00
Close
AI Raises Alarms Over Long-Term Job Security
Saudi Arabia Maintains Ties with Iran Despite Israel Conflict
Russia Formally Recognizes Taliban Government in Afghanistan
Mediators Edge Closer to Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Agreement
Emirates Airline Expands Market Share with New $20 Million Campaign
House Oversight Committee Subpoenas Former Jill Biden Aide Amid Investigation into Alleged Concealment of President Biden's Cognitive Health
Amazon Reaches Major Automation Milestone with Over One Million Robots
Meta Announces Formation of Ambitious AI Unit, Meta Superintelligence Labs
China Unveils Miniature Insect-Like Surveillance Drone
Marc Marquez Claims Victory at Dutch Grand Prix Amidst Family Misfortune
Iran Executes Alleged Israeli Spies and Arrests Hundreds Amid Post-War Crackdown
Trump Asserts Readiness for Further Strikes on Iran Amid Nuclear Tensions
Iran's Parliament Votes to Suspend Cooperation with Nuclear Watchdog
Trump Announces Upcoming US-Iran Meeting Amid Controversial Airstrikes
Trump Moves to Reshape Middle East Following Israel-Iran Conflict
NATO Leaders Endorse Plan for Increased Defence Spending
U.S. Crude Oil Prices Drop Below $65 Amid Market Volatility
Explosions Rock Doha as Iranian Missiles Target Qatar
“You Have 12 Hours to Flee”: Israeli Threat Campaign Targets Surviving Iranian Officials
Oman Set to Introduce Personal Income Tax, First in Gulf
Germany and Italy Under Pressure to Repatriate $245bn of Gold from US Vaults
Iran Intensifies Crackdown on Alleged Mossad Operatives After Sabotage Claims
Trump Praises Iran’s ‘Very Weak’ Response After U.S. Strikes and Presses Israel to Pursue Peace
WATCH: Israeli forces show the aftermath of a massive airstrike at Iran's Isfahan nuclear site
We have new information and breaking details to share about what is shaping up to be a historic air campaign tonight
Six Massive Bombs Dropped on Fordow; Trump: 'A Historic Moment for the U.S., Israel, and the World'
Fordow: Deeply Buried Iranian Enrichment Site in U.S.–Israel Crosshairs
United States Conducts Precision Strikes on Iran’s Nuclear Sites
US strikes Iran nuclear sites, Trump says
Pakistan to nominate Trump for Nobel Peace Prize.
Israel Confirms Assassination of Quds Force Commander in Tehran
16 Billion Login Credentials Leaked in Unprecedented Cybersecurity Breach
Senate hearing on who was 'really running' Biden White House kicks off
G7 Leaders Fail to Reach Consensus on Key Global Issues
Mass exodus in Tehran as millions try to flee following Trump’s evacuation order
Iranian Military Officers Reportedly Seek Contact with Reza Pahlavi, Signal Intent to Defect
Vietnam Emerges as Luxury Yacht Destination for Ultra‑Rich
China's Iranian Oil Imports Face Disruption Amid Escalating Middle East Tensions
Trump Demands Iran's Unconditional Surrender Amid Escalating Conflict
Israeli Airstrike Targets Iranian State TV in Central Tehran
President Trump is leaving the G7 summit early and has ordered the National Security Council to the Situation Room
Netanyahu Signals Potential Regime Change in Iran
Analysts Warn Iran May Resort to Unconventional Warfare
Iranian Regime Faces Existential Threat Amid Conflict
Energy Infrastructure Becomes War Zone in Middle East
Iran Conducts Ballistic Missile Launches Amid Heightened Tensions with Israel
Iran Signals Openness to Nuclear Negotiations Amid Ongoing Regional Tensions
Shock Within Iran’s Leadership: Khamenei’s Failed Plan to Launch 1,000 Missiles Against Israel
Trump's Anti-War Stance Tested Amid Israel-Iran Conflict
UK Deploys Jets to Middle East Amid Rising Tensions
×