The commercial aviation sector in the Middle East is poised for significant growth, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 5.1 percent from 2025 to 2035. According to a forecast, the region's fleet is expected to expand to 2,557 aircraft during this period, driven largely by growing demand for short-haul flights.

The Middle East’s share of the global commercial fleet is anticipated to increase from 5.3 percent in 2025 to 6.7 percent by 2035.

Accompanying this fleet expansion, maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) expenditures are forecasted to rise from $16 billion in 2025 to $20 billion by 2035, reflecting the anticipated increase in the number of operational aircraft.

This robust growth trajectory is aligned with broader economic initiatives, notably in Saudi Arabia, where the National Tourism Strategy aims to draw 150 million visitors by the year 2030. According to industry experts, the demand for air travel, including both full-service and low-cost carriers, is driving this momentum within the Middle East’s aviation market.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are central to this expansion, together constituting approximately 60 percent of the region’s aviation market.

Domestic travel in Saudi Arabia accounts for 45 percent of total seat capacity, while the UAE's aviation industry is prominently focused on international traffic.

In January, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) noted a 9.6 percent increase in passenger demand in the Middle East year-on-year, alongside a 4.4 percent rise in the capacity of regional air carriers.

However, air cargo demand experienced an 8.4 percent decline compared to the previous year.

The Middle East’s fleet growth is expected to be notably dominated by narrow-body aircraft, projected to reach 1,190 units by 2035, representing a 75.25 percent increase from 2025. The proportion of narrow-body aircraft in the total fleet is expected to grow from 43 percent to 47 percent.

These aircraft are recognized for their fuel efficiency and lower emissions, making them an environmentally favorable choice in the current climate-conscious market.

Additionally, the forecast estimates that the number of widebody aircraft will rise to 1,307 by 2035, marking a 63.17 percent increase from 2025. The region is also expected to maintain a smaller presence of Turboprop and regional jet aircraft, with projections of 37 and 23 units, respectively, by 2035.

Globally, the overall aircraft fleet is estimated to surpass 38,300 units by 2035, even as production challenges have led airlines to retain older planes, raising the average age of the global fleet.

The trend indicates that narrow-body aircraft will continue to dominate, increasing their share from 62 percent to 68 percent within the same timeframe.

Emerging markets such as China, India, and the Middle East are anticipated to capture greater shares of the global aviation sector, illustrating shifts in industry dynamics.

In India, the commercial airline fleet is expected to grow at a notable compound annual rate of 8.5 percent over the same period.

The forecast for aircraft production anticipates an increase from 1,800 units in 2025 to over 2,400 by 2035. Supporting this outlook, a recent IATA projection estimates the aviation industry's net profit will reach $36.6 billion in 2025, alongside expectations for passenger numbers to exceed 5 billion for the first time, reaching 5.2 billion, marking a 6.7 percent increase from 2024.